基于经验法则的水稻细菌性条斑病气候年型分析  

Climatic year pattern analysis of rice bacterial leaf streak based on the rule of thumb

作　　者：陈冰[1] 林汉龙 宋祖钦 陈观浩 何泽华 王春霞[1] Chen Bing;LinHanlong;Song Zuqin;Chen Guanhao;He Zehua;Wang Chunxia(Huazhou Meteorological Service,HuazhouGuangdong 525100;Daqiao Agricultural Technology Extension Station,HuazhouGuangdong 525132;Forecast Station of Plant Disease and Insect Pests of Huazhou,Huazhou Guangdong 525100)

机构地区：[1]广东省化州市气象局,广东化州525100 [2]广东省化州市笪桥镇农业技术推广站,广东化州525132 [3]广东省化州市病虫测报站,广东化州525100

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2020年第1期26-30,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2013B020416002);茂名市科技计划项目(2019455)。

摘　　要：利用广东省化州市1989-2016年晚稻细菌性条斑病资料和同期气象资料,采用合成分析和秩相关分析,筛选出影响细菌性条斑病发生的关键气象因子;基于经验法则,利用水稻细菌性条斑病发生阶段的温度、降水距平,判别细菌性条斑病发病程度,并确定了细菌性条斑病发生流行的气候年型与预测指标。经历史回代,判别细菌性条斑病发病程度符合率为82.1%,并进行了2017-2019年的外延指标判别,符合率达100%,综合判别符合率在83%以上。Based on the data of bacterial leaf streak of late rice from 1989 to 2016 in Huazhou, Guangdong Province, and the meteorological data of the same period, the key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of bacterial leaf streak were screened out by using synthetic analysis and rank correlation analysis. Based on the rule of thumb, the occurrence degree of bacterial leaf streak was determined by the temperature and precipitation in the occurrence stage of bacterial leaf streak, and the climatic year pattern and prediction index of bacterial leaf streak were determined. After historical regression, the coincidence rate of judging the incidence of bacterial stripe disease was 82.1%. The 2017-2019 extension index was judged, the compliance rate reached 100%, and the comprehensive judged compliance rate was above 83%.

关 键 词：细菌性条斑病 经验法则 气象因子 气候年型 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]