一种短历时降雨综合评估方法在广州市的应用  

Application of a short duration rainfall comprehensive evaluation method in Guangzhou

作　　者：刘璐 张峰 Liu Lu;Zhang Feng(Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2020年第1期35-40,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：2019年中国气象局决策服务专项。

摘　　要：基于广州市5个国家气象站1981-2015年逐小时降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对广州市气象站不同历时降雨年际变化特征进行分析,应用百分位法建立了一种基于降雨极值和降雨持续时间的短历时降雨综合等级评估方法,并使用此方法对2007-2011年广州市21次降雨过程进行综合评估,同时对灾损因子和短历时降雨因子进行相关性分析。结果表明,广州市短历时强降雨发生频次和极值均呈现上升趋势,其中1h强降雨频次上升趋势最为显著;综合等级评估方法对短历时降雨灾情具有一定的指示作用;短历时降雨持续时间和6h降雨极值与部分灾损因子相关系数较高。Based on hourly precipitation dataset from 1981 to 2015, the linear trend method and Mann-Kendall test method were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of short-time rainstorm(1 h,3 h,6 h) and long-time rainstorm(24 h) in Guangzhou. By using the percentile threshold method, a short-time rainfall comprehensive evaluation model was established based on the extreme value and the duration of rainfall. 21 rainfall processes in Guangzhou from 2007 to 2011 were comprehensively evaluated, and the correlation between disaster damage factors and short duration rainfall factors was analyzed. The frequency and extreme value of short-term rainstorm in Guangzhou showed an upward trend, and the frequency of 1 h rainstorm was the most significant. The comprehensive grade evaluation method had a certain indicative effect on the short-term rainfall disaster. The correlation coefficients of short-duration rainfall duration and 6 h rainfall extreme value with some disaster damage factors were high.

关 键 词：短历时降雨 百分位法 综合等级 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]