海河流域农业水资源承载力评价研究  

Study on evaluation of agricultural water resources carrying capacity in Haihe River Basin

作　　者：康健 王建华[1] 王素芬[3] KANG Jian;WANG Jianhua;WANG Sufen(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources of China,Beijing 100038,China;College of Water Resources&Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038 [3]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2020年第4期47-56,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109211);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401408);农业部公益性行业项目(201203077);国家国际科技合作项目(2013DFG70990);863计划“作物生命需水过程控制与高效用水生理调控技术及产品”(2011AA100502)。

摘　　要：为充分了解水资源支撑当前农业发展规模所处的状态,以科学调整农业发展战略及相应政策,保障海河流域水安全及粮食安全,开展农业水资源承载力评价研究。在构建农业水资源承载力评价体系的基础上,通过熵权法确定权重,采用基于集对分析理论的五元联系数法对海河流域农业水资源承载力进行评价,并通过模糊综合分析法验证该结果。研究结果表明:两者计算结果基本相同,表明计算方法可行。研究结论为:山西、内蒙古、辽宁的承载潜力处于V3级临界状态,北京、天津、河北、河南、山东的农业水资源承载力处于V4级饱和状态,表明海河流域的农业水资源承载力的强弱与地下水失衡状况密切相关。通过承载能力"等级逆推",得出现状条件下流域内各行政区的地下水开采率及有效灌溉面积的适宜区间,即:未来海河流域地下水需减少开采1.782×10^10~2.031×10^10 m^3。In order to fully understand the status of the current agricultural development scale supported by water resources for scientifically adjusting the agricultural development strategy and the corresponding policies to guarantee the water security and food security of Haihe River Basin, a study on the evaluation of the agricultural water resources carrying capacity is made. On the basis of constructing the evaluation system of agricultural water resources carrying capacity, the agricultural water resources carrying capacity in Haihe River Basin is evaluated by means of the set pair analysis theory-based five-element connection number method through determining the weight by entropy weight method, while the result is verified with fuzzy comprehensive analysis method as well. The study result shows that both the calculated results are basically consistent, thus the calculation method is indicated to be feasible. It is concluded from the study that the agricultural water resources carrying potentials of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning are all within the critical state of V3, while all the carrying potentials of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, and Shandong are in the saturated state of V4 within Haihe River Basin;which indicates that the agricultural water resources carrying capacity of Haihe River Basin is closely related to the status of the groundwater imbalance therein. Through the "grade inversion" of the carrying capacity, the suitable intervals of both the groundwater exploitation rates and effective irrigation areas of all the administrative regions within the basin under the current conditions are obtained;in other words, the groundwater exploitation of Haihe River Basin is necessary to be reduced by 1.782×10^10~2.031×10^10 m^3.

关 键 词：农业水资源承载力 集对分析 模糊综合评价 熵权法 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]