气象因子对油茶油酸含量的影响分析及模型构建  

Influence analysis of meteorological factors on oleic acid of Camellia oleifera and model construction

作　　者：彭嘉栋[1] 廖玉芳[1] 蒋元华[1] 黄超 PENG Jia-dong;LIAO Yu-fang;JIANG Yuan-hua;HUANG Chao(Climate Center of Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气候中心,长沙410118

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2020年第2期40-43,共4页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省科技重大专项(2018NK1030)。

摘　　要：利用2012—2017年湖南省不同县市多块油茶(Camellia oleifera)样地的油酸含量资料和同时段邻近气象站资料构建的油茶生长或处理期各阶段气象指标,采用主成分分析的方法分析不同阶段气象指标对油茶油酸含量的影响,并基于此建立油酸含量预测模型。结果表明,采摘当年、果实膨大高峰期、油脂转化和积累高峰期的气象因子对于油酸含量有重要影响,降水类指标特别是降水量和最长连续降水日数是影响油茶油酸含量最重要的气象因子,利用气象因子构建的油茶油酸含量预测模型精度较高,具有一定的适用性。Based on the collection and processing of the oleic acid data from multiple Camellia oleifera sample plots in different county of Hunan province during 2012—2017 and the meteorological indices for each stage of growth and treatment of Camellia oleifera which computed by the nearby meteorological observation stations’data during the same period,the method of principal component analysis had been used to research the impacts of the meteorological factors in different stages on content of oleic acid for Camellia oleifera,and a forecasting model were constructed based on above meteorological factors.The results showed that the effects of meteorological factors for the whole year of fruit picking,oil transformation and accumulation peak period,fruit enlargement peak period on oleic acid content were more significant than other periods,and the precipitation indexes,especially the precipitation and the longest continuous precipitation days were the key factors which affecting oleic acid.The oleic acid forecasting model constructed base on those factors had a relative high accuracy and had certain applicability.

关 键 词：气象因子 油茶(Camellia oleifera) 油酸含量 预测模型 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S794.4[农业科学—林木遗传育种]