预测与健康管理不确定性产生与传播机理研究  

Research on the Generating and Propagating Mechanism of Uncertainty for Prognostics and Health Management

作　　者：胡雷刚[1] 肖明清[2] 轩永波 黎凤起 Hu Leigang;Xiao Mingqing;Xuan Yongbo;Li Fengqi(UAV Center of Army Aviation College,Beijing 101123,China;Aeronautics Engineering School of Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710038,China;Air Force Research Institute,Beijing 100085,China;Support Department of Army Aviation College,Beijing 101123,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军航空兵学院无人机中心,北京101123 [2]空军工程大学航空工程学院,西安710038 [3]空军研究院,北京100085 [4]陆军航空兵学院保障部,北京101123

出　　处：《计算机测量与控制》2020年第4期22-27,共6页Computer Measurement &Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61703427);部委级“十三五”预研资助项目。

摘　　要：针对预测与健康管理中的不确定性来源与传递问题,开展了不确定性产生与传播机理研究;首先,提出了一种预测与健康管理开放式体系结构,并提炼得到6项基本元素;其次,从基本元素入手,从测量、数据、模型、方法、决策和使用共6方面分析了不确定性产生机理;然后,根据预测与健康管理工作流程,分析了不确定性传播机理,提出了不确定性传播定理;最后,在不确定性产生与传播机理分析基础上,提出了预测与健康管理不确定性消解策略,以期消减预测与健康管理过程中的不确定性。Dealing with the generating and transferring problem of uncertainty in Prognostics and Health Management,propagating mechanism of uncertainty was studied in this paper.Firstly,open system architecture was proposed,and its elements were extracted.Secondly,generating mechanisms were explored for measurement,data,model,method,decision and usage elements.Then propagating mechanism of uncertainty was investigated following the working flow of prognostics and health management.And propagation rules were proved.At last,also the most important,digesting policies were put forward for uncertainty according to generation and propagation mechanisms.

关 键 词：不确定性 产生机理 传播机理 预测与健康管理 不确定性消解 

分 类 号：TP277[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]