基于二次重现期的桂平航运枢纽水闸设计洪水组合研究  

Study on Design Flood Combination of Guiping Shipping Hub Sluice Based on Secondary Return Period

作　　者：甘富万[1] 张华国 黄宇明 肖良 胡秀英 GAN Fuwan;ZHANG Huaguo;HUANG Yuming;XIAO Liang;HU Xiuying(College of Civil Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;College of Civil Architectural Engineering,Nanning University,Nanning,530220,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]南宁学院土木与建筑工程学院,广西南宁530220

出　　处：《水文》2020年第2期48-54,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2018GXNSFAA138042);南宁学院科研基金资助项目(2017XJ24)。

摘　　要：干、支流交汇处支流上的水闸不仅受到支流洪水的影响还受到干流洪水顶托的影响,设计水位的推求需要考虑干支流洪水之间的相关性和同时发生的概率。以桂平航运枢纽水闸为例,采用Copula函数构建干流浔江与支流郁江洪水的联合分布,对比分析同现重现期和二次重现期差异,分别根据同频率和最可能组合经调洪演算推求水闸防洪水位。研究表明:浔江、郁江洪水之间存在较弱的正相关性,Clayton Copula能较好模拟浔江、郁江洪水的联合分布;二次重现期的浔江、郁江洪水流量均大于同现重现期,因此二次重现期更安全。同频组合经调洪演算推求桂平航运枢纽水闸防洪水位要高于最可能组合,最可能组合偏重于较大的郁江流量,浔江流量设计值偏小。The sluices at the intersection of the mainstream and tributaries are not only affected by tributary floods,but also affected by the backwater of the mainstream floods.The correlation between the mainstream and tributary floods and the probability of simultaneous occurrence should be taken into account in the calculation of the design water level.Taking Guiping shipping hub sluice as an example,this paper used Copula function to construct the joint distribution of floods in the rivers of Xunjiang(mainstream)and Yujiang(tributary),and analysed the difference between the co-occurrence return period and the secondary return period,then calculated the flood control level of the sluice according to the same frequency and most possible combination.The results show that there is a weak positive correlation between the Xunjiang and Yujiang floods,and Clayton Copula can better simulate the joint distribution of Xunjiang and Yujiang floods.The flood discharge of the rivers of Xunjiang and Yujiang in the secondary return period is larger than that in the co-occurrence return period,so that the secondary return period is safer.The flood control level of the Guiping shipping hub sluice obtained by using flood regulation calculation with the same frequency combination is higher than the most likely combination.And the most likely combination focuses on the larger Yujiang discharge,while the Xunjiang discharge design value is smaller.

关 键 词：水闸 COPULA函数 二次重现期 设计组合 调洪 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]