平均发展速度计量方法的改进  

Improvement in the Measurement of the Average Development Speed

作　　者：张传洲[1] 刘石威 ZHANG Chuan-zhou;LIU Shi-wei(School of Economics&Management,Zaozhuang University,Zaozhuang 277160,China;School of mathematics and statistics,Zaozhuang University,Zaozhuang 277160,China)

机构地区：[1]枣庄学院经济与管理学院,山东枣庄277160 [2]枣庄学院数学与统计学院,山东枣庄277160

出　　处：《枣庄学院学报》2020年第2期80-84,共5页Journal of Zaozhuang University

基　　金：教育部高等教育司产学合作协同育人项目(项目编号:201602028054,201801189006)。

摘　　要：在社会经济统计时间序列分析中,平均发展速度是一个重要的概念和分析工具.一般而言,根据研究的目标和任务不同,统计实务关于平均发展速度的计量方法常见的有水平法和累计法,对于这两种计量方法一直存在争议,相关研究表明都有其固有的缺点和不足.在现代统计信息处理技术快速发展的条件下,进一步分析研究探求平均发展速度计量更为有效的方法是必要的.本文拟对水平法和累计法在比较分析基础上,尝试按照平均指标计量方法评价的标准,构建一个新的计量方法——最小平方法,并进行实例比较,验证了最小平方法的有效性和可行性.In the analysis of time series of socio-economic statistics,the average development speed is an important concept and analysis tool.In general,according to the objectives and tasks of the study,the measurement methods of average development speed in statistical practice are common in the level method and the accumulation method.There has been controversy over these two measurement methods,and related studies have shown that they have inherent shortcomings and deficiencies..Under the condition of the rapid development of modern statistical information processing technology,it is necessary to further analyze and explore more effective methods for measuring the average development speed.Based on the comparative analysis of the level method and the accumulation method,this paper tries to construct a new measurement method:the minimum average method,according to the criteria of the average index measurement method,and carries out an example comparison to verify the validity and feasibility of the minimum average method.

关 键 词：平均发展速度 水平法 累计法 最小平方法 

分 类 号：C814[社会学—统计学]