影子银行规模与房地产价格关系的实证检验  

Empirical Test on Relationship Between Shadow Banking Scale and Real Estate Price

作　　者：姜世超 Jiang Shichao(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Agricultural Bank of China,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [2]中国农业银行,北京100083

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第10期153-156,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173246)。

摘　　要：文章基于信贷影响实体经济的传导机制理论构建影子银行规模与房地产价格互动关系的理论模型,在此基础上,通过结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)对影子银行规模与房地产价格的互动关系进行实证分析。结果显示:影子银行规模与房价之间确实存在互动机制。2008年之前,在房地产市场投资火热的情况下,影子银行规模的扩张助推了房价的上升,房价的上涨会使得影子银行规模下降;2008年以后,影子银行规模对房地产价格产生短暂的负向影响,但影子银行的规模受房价变动的影响不再显著,而是更多地受到利率等其他因素的影响。Based on the transmission mechanism theory of credit affecting real economy, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the interaction between shadow banking scale and real estate price, on the basis of which the interaction between shadow banking scale and real estate price is empirically analyzed through the structural vector autoregressive(SVAR) model. The results show that there is indeed a mechanism of interaction between shadow banking scale and housing prices;before 2008, the expansion of shadow banking scale contributed to the rise of house prices in the context of hot investment in the real estate market. Rising house prices would reduce the shadow banking size;after 2008, the size of shadow banking had a short-term negative impact on real estate prices, and the size of shadow banking was no longer significantly affected by changes in housing prices, but more by other factors such as interest rates.

关 键 词：影子银行 房地产 结构向量自回归模型(SVAR) 

分 类 号：F832.45[经济管理—金融学]