从宏观到产业:海外疫情对我国产业链影响的全景透析  

From Macro to Industry:A Panorama Analysis of the Impact of Overseas Epidemic Outbreaks on China's Industrial Chain

作　　者：诸建芳[1] 刘博阳 

机构地区：[1]中信证券

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2020年第4期21-26,共6页China Money

摘　　要：文章研究指出,中国对世界经济的依存度在下降,而世界对中国的依存度在上升,这突显了中国在全球产业链中的核心位置,优势集中体现在中下游制造领域。文章在特定假设下,通过对全球投入产出表的测算来估算海外疫情对中国产出的影响,预计将拖累中国单季工业增加值约2个百分点。文章同时概述了与全球产业链联系相对紧密的十大产业所受的影响。The paper points out that China's dependence on the world economy is declining,while the world's dependence on China is on the rise,which highlights China's core position in the global industrial chain,with its advantages concentrated in the mid-and downstream manufacturing fields.Under certain assumptions,the paper estimates the impact of overseas epidemic outbreaks on China's output by measuring the global input-output table,which is expected to drag down China's single-quarter industrial value-added by about 2 percentage points.The paper also outlines the impacts sustained by top ten industries that are relatively intertwined with the global industrial chain.

关 键 词：投入产出表 全球产业链 工业增加值 依存度 制造领域 中国产出 十大产业 疫情 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]