系统可靠性评估与更新方法  

Assessment and Updating Method on System Reliability

作　　者：傅惠民[1] 文歆磊 FU Hui-Min;WEN Xin-Lei(Research Center of Small Sample Technology,Beihang University,Beijing100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学小样本技术研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《机电产品开发与创新》2020年第2期1-5,共5页Development & Innovation of Machinery & Electrical Products

基　　金：2018年智能制造综合标准化项目《基于数字仿真的机械产品可靠性测试方法标准研究与试验验证》;国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB720000)

摘　　要：建立一种系统可靠性评估与更新方法,能够根据子系统的试验结果给出系统可靠度的置信限,并根据系统的试验结果对其寿命或可靠度的置信限进行更新。鉴于一般系统的可靠度是各子系统可靠度的和差积商及其组合,因此在置信分布的基础上,提出一种和差积商的置信限理论,给出子系统可靠度和差积商的置信限公式,解决了一般系统可靠度的置信限计算难题。通过子系统可靠度置信限和当前系统试验数据的有机融合,建立了对系统寿命或可靠度进行实时更新的公式。文中详细讨论了系统成败型试验的可靠度更新方法和非成败型试验的寿命及可靠度更新方法,给出工程上常用的Weibull分布、对数正态分布的寿命和可靠度更新公式。大量工程算例和Monte Carlo模拟验证表明,本文方法能够显著提高系统寿命预测和可靠性评估精度。An assessment and updating method on system reliability is proposed,where confidence limit of system reliability is obtained according to the test results of subsystems,then further updated by the test results of the whole system.Considering that reliability of a general complex system can be derived by the four basic arithmetic operations and their combinations of subsystem reliability,we further propose the theory of confidence limit of arithmetic operations based on the confidence distribution,corresponding calculation formulas are also given.By combining the confidence limit of subsystem reliability and system test data together,real-time updating schemes on system lifetime and reliability are constructed.We discuss the updating method for both pass-fail test and life test in great detail,then further present the lifetime and reliability updating formulas for the commonly used Weibull and Log-normal distribution.Calculating results of illustrative example and Monte Carlo simulation indicate that,our proposed method can enhance the precision of lifetime prediction and reliability assessment remarkably.

关 键 词：复杂系统 可靠性评估 可靠度更新 寿命更新 置信分布 置信度 置信限 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] TB115[理学—数学]