采用优化加点Kriging模型的助推火箭残骸安全区预示方法  

Prediction method for booster rocket′s debris safety control zone based on infill-sampling Kriging model

作　　者：祝学军[1] 卜奎晨[1] 王浩[1] 高峰[1] 赵长见[1] ZHU Xuejun;BU Kuichen;WANG Hao;GAO Feng;ZHAO Changjian(China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2020年第2期121-126,共6页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

摘　　要：建立火箭及其分离残骸弹道计算动力学模型,并采用四元数方法对姿态角解算进行处理。提出基于优化加点Kriging模型的安全区预示方法,结合Monte Carlo和Kriging代理模型的特点,给出安全区预示流程。以某型助推火箭残骸安全区计算为例,对提出的安全区预示方法进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明,提出的基于优化加点Kriging模型安全区预示方法与Monte Carlo方法相比,在不损失计算精度的前提下,具有更高的计算效率,满足快速迭代的工程需求;相比传统极限偏差叠加方法,可显著降低安全区覆盖面积,具有较强的工程应用价值。Dynamics model of the rocket and its debris were established,and the quaternion algorithm was used to compute the carrier attitude.A prediction method of safety control zone based on infill-sampling Kriging model was proposed,which combined the characteristics of Monte Carlo and Kriging surrogate models.Then a flow chart of prediction was provided furthermore,and one booster rocket′s debris safety control zone was simulated.Simulation results show that,compared with the Monte Carlo method without losing computational accuracy,the proposed method has equivalent computational accuracy and higher computational efficiency:it can meet the rapid iteration requirement for engineering design.While compared with the conventional extreme deviation overlying method,it can reduce the area of safety control zone dramatically and has relatively good engineering application value.

关 键 词：助推火箭残骸 安全区预示 优化加点Kriging模型 计算效率 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]