过去1500年典型暖期东亚夏季风年代际变化特征对比及其可能成因  

Comparison of the EASM interdecadal variability and possible causes between typical warm periods during the past 1500 years

作　　者：王晓青 刘健[3,4,5] 王志远 刘斌 WANG Xiaoqing;LIU Jian;WANG Zhiyuan;LIU Bin(Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Office,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education/State Key Laboratory of Geographical Evolution of Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base/Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,School of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex System,School of Mathematical Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China;School of Geography and Environment,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021 [2]河北省人工影响天气办公室,石家庄050021 [3]虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [4]江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室,南京师范大学数学科学学院,南京210023 [5]青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋-气候-同位素模拟开放工作室,青岛266237 [6]浙江师范大学地理与环境学院,金华321004

出　　处：《气象学报》2020年第2期237-249,共13页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41420104002);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600401);江苏省高校科技创新团队项目;江苏高校优势学科建设项目(164320H116)。

摘　　要：利用通用地球系统模式开展的过去1500年气候模拟全强迫试验和对照试验结果,在验证模式模拟性能的基础上,采用多变量经验正交函数分解等方法,对比分析了典型暖期东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及其成因机制。结果表明,两个典型暖期东亚夏季风变化的主周期均为准10 a和准20 a。中世纪暖期黄河流域至日本南部一带降水偏多,长江流域以南和西北太平洋一带降水偏少;现代暖期东亚夏季风降水表现为"南涝北旱"型分布特征。内部变率是影响典型暖期东亚夏季风变化的主控因子之一,其中太平洋年代际振荡起决定性作用。当太平洋年代际振荡处于正位相时,热带西太平洋(东亚大陆)变暖(变冷),东亚地区海、陆热力差减小,对应弱的东亚夏季风。另外,中世纪暖期海平面气压的动态变化对应850 hPa风场在西北太平洋(日本海)一带均出现了经向排列的异常反气旋(气旋),从而导致中国南部(北部)降水偏多(偏少)。The characteristics and causes of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)interdecadal variability during the Medieval Warm Period(MWP,1001-1100)and Present Warm Period(PWP,1901-2000)are examined by using results of all-forcing and control experiments over the past 1500 years of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0(CESM1).Results show that the interdecadal variability of the EASM is characterized by a north-south dipole rainfall pattern in eastern China and the significant interdecadal periods of the EASM are around 10 and 20 years during both periods.These changes are mainly attributed to the internal variability,which is preliminarily dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.The positive phase of PDO induces warming(cooling)over the tropical western Pacific(East Asia continent),featuring a"colder land-warmer ocean"pattern,which favors a weak EASM.Besides,the meridionally arranged anomalous low-level anticyclone(cyclone)occurs over the northwestern Pacific(Sea of Japan)during MWP.These are dynamically in accordance with the sea level pressure,thus resulting in increased(reduced)precipitation over the southern China(northern China).

关 键 词：中世纪暖期 现代暖期 东亚夏季风 年代际变化 机理研究 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]