当前全球中央银行研究的若干重点问题  

Issues in Current Central Bank Researches

作　　者：陈雨露[1] CHEN Yulu(The People’s Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行,北京100800

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第2期1-14,共14页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：国际金融危机以来,世界经济形势发生了复杂而深远的变化,一些影响长期化的新现象、新问题、新概念不断涌现。作为全球重要的宏观经济研究力量,各国中央银行纷纷着手对后危机时代的新理念、新规律展开深入研究,并努力进行政策性的探索。本文重点讨论当前全球中央银行比较关注的三大问题:一是负利率政策的逻辑与效果;二是全球稳定币的宏观政策挑战;三是气候变化导致的宏观金融风险。现有宏观理论研究存在的不足及政策实践面临的新问题,对研究工作者而言,既是重大挑战,也是难得的历史性机遇。应立足中国国情,放眼全球百年变局,密切跟踪极具未来性的热点问题和理论前沿并将其科学应用于我国高质量发展时代的政策实践。New economic phenomena,problems,and concepts have emerged consecutively since the financial crisis.As drivers of macroeconomic research,central banks have been carrying out in-depth analysis on these new concepts and patterns and exploring new policy options.The gap between existing macroeconomic theories and the new issues in the practical policy-making process not only poses challenges,but also provides rare historical opportunities to researchers.Currently,central banks’research around the world include the following three key topics.The first is the logic behind negative interest rate policies(NIRPs)and their effects.Since the global financial crisis,some developed economies have implemented NIRPs to stimulate economic recoveries.Strengthened supervision and weakened risk preferences after the crisis provided the possibility for NIRPs,while the credit currency system and the widespread adoption of electronic trading technologies provided the necessary conditions for the implementation of NIRPs.NIRPs may effectively boost confidence,reduce market interest rates,and loosen financial conditions in the short-term.However,in the long-term,the effects will not be as satisfying.NIRPs can easily affect banks’profitability,hamper effective resource allocation,weaken the transmission effect of interest rate policies,create asset bubbles,lead to competitive currency devaluation and financial turmoil,and over-exert central bank’s policy control.China should treasure the fact that our monetary policy operates within normal margins,take full advantage of the decisive role that the market plays in optimizing resource allocation through price leverage,deepen reform and opening-up to improve the role of the government,focus on unblocking the monetary policy transmission channels and provide necessary policy preparations for crisis response.The second is the macroeconomic policy challenges posed by global stablecoins.Facebook’s white paper release of Libra on June 2019 triggered widespread concerns over the potential r

关 键 词：中央银行研究 负利率政策 全球稳定币 气候变化 

分 类 号：F831.2[经济管理—金融学]