双变量耦合模型在水文预报中的应用  

Generalization of a Bivariate Coupling River Flood Routing Model and the Application on Flood Forecasting

作　　者：禹佳奇 包为民[1] 包沐曦 卢金利[3] 落全富 YU Jiaqi;BAO Weimin;BAO Muxi;LU Jinli;LUO Quanfu(College of Hydrology&Water Resources,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Maritime Safety Administration,Nanjing 210019,China;Zhejiang Taizhou Hydrological Station,Taizhou 318001,China;Qingshan Reservoir Management Office,Hangzhou 311305,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]南京海事局,南京210019 [3]浙江省台州市水文站,浙江台州318001 [4]青山水库管理处,杭州311305

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期1-5,共5页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51709077/41371048/51479062/51709076);国家重点研发计划专项经费资助项目(2016YFC0402703);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2017-12)。

摘　　要：为了解决潮汐河段的水流演算问题以及现有的河道水流演算模型只能模拟某一特定变量的问题,对双变量耦合模型进行参数概化,并选取全国范围内来源于不同水系的19个河段汛期作为洪水资料进行验证,将计算结果与马斯京根法进行比较,双变量耦合模型的确定性系数更高,模拟过程与实际水流过程的拟合程度更好,模拟精度较高.应用于实际流域后表明该方法可有效提高洪水预报精度.In order to solve the problem of flow calculation in tidal reach and the problem that the existing river flow calculation model can only simulate a specific variable,a two-variable coupling model is presented and the parameters are generalized.19 river sections from different river systems in the whole country are selected as flood data to verify the flood data.Compared with the Muskingum method,the certainty coefficient of the two-variable coupling model is higher,the fitting degree between the simulation process and the actual flow process is better,and the simulation accuracy is higher.The application of this method to the actual watershed shows that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting.

关 键 词：洪水预报 双变量耦合模型 洪水演算 马斯京根模型 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]