华北落叶松人工林直径分布预测模型构建  

Prediction model construction of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation

作　　者：周泽宇[1] 杨绕华 张玉珍[1] 黄选瑞[1] 张志东[1] 王冬至[1] 李大勇[2] ZHOU Zeyu;YANG Raohua;ZHANG Yuzhen;HUANG Xuanrui;ZHANG Zhidong;WANG Dongzhi;LI Dayong(College of Forestry Agricultural University of Hebei,Forest Resources Innovation and Protection Laboratory of Hebei,Baoding 071000,China;Mulan Weichang State-owned Forest Farm Administration Bureau of Hebei Province,Chengde 068450,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学林学院,河北省林木种植资源创新与保护实验室,河北保定071000 [2]河北省木兰围场国有林场管理局,河北承德068450

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第2期117-124,共8页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0600403);河北省教育厅资助科研项目(QN2018125);国家林业公益性行业科研专项项目(20150430304)。

摘　　要：【目的】基于不同直径分布预测模型(Weibull分布模型、Gamma分布模型、Lognormal分布模型),构建包含华北落叶松林分因子的直径分布线性混合效应模型,有助于分析直径分布对林分因子动态变化的响应。【方法】利用塞罕坝华北落叶松人工林标准地调查数据,应用最大似然估计法(Maximum Likelihood Estimation,MLE)估计模型参数,通过K-S(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)检验、C-V(Cramer-von Mises)检验、A-D(Anderson-Darling)检验对模型适用性进行检验,基于最优模型构建华北落叶松人工林直径分布线性混合效应模型。【结果】塞罕坝华北落叶松人工林直径分布最优模型为Weibull分布;基于最优模型,构建了包含优势高、断面积、对数密度的线性混合效应模型,当3个参数随机效应方差-协方差结构和误差项结构均为对角矩阵结构[UN(1)]时,模型的拟合效果最好。包含位置、尺度、形状3参数随机效应项模型的决定系数R^2分别为0.895、0.888、0.801,均方误差(MSE)分别为5.365、1.724、1.151,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为2.316、1.313、1.073,拟合结果均较好。【结论】线性混合效应模型具有较好的预测直径分布能力,可为精准预测华北落叶松人工林直径分布提供理论依据和技术参数。【Objective】Based on different diameter distribution prediction models(Weibull distribution,Gamma distribution,Lognormal distribution),linear mixed-effects model including the main stand factors are constructed to help to reflect the response of diameter distribution to stand dynamics.【Method】Using the survey data of typical Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation,the model parameters were estimated by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE),and the adaptability of the established model was evaluated via K-S(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)test,C-V(Cramer-von Mises)test,and A-D(Anderson-Darling)test.Based on the optimal model,a linear mixed-effects model of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation was constructed.【Result】The optimal model for the diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation was the 3-parameter Weibull distribution.Based on the optimal model,a linear mixed-effect model with inputs of stand dominant height,stand basal area and logarithmic density was constructed and the mixed-effect model had the best fitting result as the variance-covariance structure of random-effect and the error term variance-covariance structure was both Diagonal matrix UN(1).The R^2 of linear mixed-effect model of Weibull distribution of parameter a,b,and c were estimated at 0.895,0.888,and 0.801 respectively.The MSE were at 5.365,1.724,1.151 and RMSE were at 2.316,1.313,1.073.the fitting result was relatively accurate.【Conclusion】Linear mixed-effects model has the capability to accurately predict stand diameter distribution.The model can provide theoretical basis and technical parameters for accurately predicting the diameter distributions of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation.

关 键 词：华北落叶松 动态直径分布模型 最大似然估计 线性混合模型 

分 类 号：S758.57[农业科学—森林经理学]