基于TOPKAPI模型的湿润流域洪水模拟  

Flood simulation based on TOPKAPI model in a humid basin

作　　者：徐杰 李致家[1] 马亚楠 胡友兵 XU Jie;LI Zhijia;MA Yanan;HU Youbing(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Hydrologic Bureau(Information center)the Huai River Resources Commission,Bengbu 233001,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京2100982 [2]淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心),安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2020年第1期18-25,共8页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508103)。

摘　　要：为了研究分布式水文模型在湿润流域的应用效果,将基于物理的分布式TOPKAPI模型应用到淮河上游息县以上流域,模拟该区域2007-2017年间的11场次洪水过程,分析模型的适用性。结果表明,TOPKAPI模型在湿润流域场次洪水模拟中精度尚可,但随着流域面积的增大,大坡岭、长台关、息县的平均纳什效率系数依次为0.54、0.5、0.29,模拟精度有所下降;在合理范围内调整滞时,平均纳什效率系数最多提高0.2,在合理范围内调整河网蓄水消退系数,平均纳什效率系数最多提高0.3,考虑滞后演算法的TOPKAPI模型的平均纳什效率系数能达到0.7。分析结果表明,合理采用滞后演算法的TOPKAPI模型能有效用于湿润流域的洪水预报。In order to explore the application effect of the distributed hydrological model in a humid basin,the physical distributed TOPKAPI model was applied to simulate the flood events in the upstream of the Huaihe River.The model was validated above Xixian station with 11 flood events between 2007 and 2017.The results showed that the accuracy of the model in the flood simulation was acceptable.The mean Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(NSC)of Dapoling,Changtaiguan and,Xixian were 0.54,0.5 and 0.29,respectively,which exhibited that the simulation accuracy of the model decreased with the increase of watershed area.The mean NSC can be increased by up to 0.2 by adjusting the lag time within a reasonable range,and up to 0.3 by adjusting the recession coefficients of water storage in the basin.The mean NSC of the TOPKAPI model can be reached 0.7 by considering lag-and-route method,indicating that lag-and-route method can be effectively used for the TOPKAPI model for flood simulations in a humid basin.

关 键 词：洪水模拟 TOPKAPI模型 滞后演算法 模拟精度 淮河上游 嵌套流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]