基于直觉模糊信息DEMATEL法的水电站事故应急能力评价  

Evaluation on emergency response capacity of hydropower stations based on intuitionistic fuzzy information DEMATEL algorithm

作　　者：孙开畅[1] 马文俊 李权 颜鑫 SUN Kaichang;MA Wenjun;LI Quan;YAN Xin(School of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Energy Group Loushui Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Enshi 445000,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]湖北能源集团溇水水电有限公司,湖北恩施445000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2020年第1期23-29,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2017YFC0805100);三峡大学硕士学位论文培优基金资助项目(编号:2018SSPY017)。

摘　　要：为强化水电站应急救援能力建设,提出了基于直觉模糊信息的决策试验与实验评估法(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, DEMATEL)的评价模型对水电站应急救援能力进行研究分析。综合考虑水电站建设和运营特点,建立应急救援能力评价指标体系;基于直觉模糊理论表达信息的不确定性,构造了DEMATEL的直接影响矩阵,并通过直觉模糊熵确定专家的决策权重;结合风险偏好系数建立直觉模糊函数,将直觉模糊决策矩阵转换为实数矩阵;最后根据中心度和原因度对评价指标进行分析,确定指标间的影响程度及其作用关系。结果表明:日常安全宣传与管理、应急预案准备、现场应急反应能力对水电站安全事故应急救援能力建设起到最重要的作用。该模型能揭示指标间的影响程度和重要性,有效量化和评价应急救援能力,具有一定的实用性。In order to strengthen the construction of emergency response capacity for hydropower stations, an evaluation model based on intuitionistic fuzzy information DEMATEL(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory)algorithm is proposed to study and analyze the emergency rescue capability of hydropower stations.Comprehensively considering the characteristics of the construction and operation of hydropower stations, an evaluation index system for emergency rescue capability is established herein. Based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory to express the uncertainty of information, the direct influence matrix of DEMATEL is constructed, and the decision weights of experts are determined by intuitionistic fuzzy entropy. Combining risk preference coefficients to establish intuitionistic fuzzy functions, the intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is transformed into real matrix. Finally, the evaluation indicators are analyzed according to the degree of centrality and causality to determine the degree of influence between the indicators and their roles. The results show that the daily safety propaganda and management, emergency preparedness, and on-site emergency response capability play the most important role in the construction of the safety accident emergency rescue capability of hydropower stations. The model can reveal the degree and importance of the impact between indicators, effectively quantify and evaluate emergency rescue capability, and has certain practicality.

关 键 词：应急能力 DEMATEL法 评价指标体系 直觉模糊理论 风险偏好系数 

分 类 号：TV737[水利工程—水利水电工程]