基于随机Petri网理论的邮轮灾难事故预警机制研究  

A Study on Pre-warning Mechanis m of Cruise Disaster Accidents Based on Stochastic Petri Net Theory

作　　者：李明琨[1] 蒋欣颖 Li Ming-kun;Jiang Xin-ying(School of Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学管理学院,上海200444

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2020年第4期12-20,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BGL083);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71831008)。

摘　　要：邮轮安全事故的严重后果凸显了预警机制的重要性。本文采用集合结构对邮轮安全事故的致因进行分析与描述,以此建立邮轮预警指标体系,通过对指标体系的分析并结合船舶航行实践,设计了邮轮安全预警机制。本研究综合考虑气象条件、通航环境对邮轮航行安全的影响,通过引入与构建随机Petri网理论模型,结合“东方之星”轮沉船事故,对恶劣气象条件下邮轮的安全预警机制进行仿真分析。实验显示风级、雨量等级增长速率与邮轮面临灾难危机的概率之间存在非线性关系,且浪级、风级及雨量等级对邮轮安全预警状态有交互作用,并产生了三者交互作用下的预警临界曲面,为邮轮是否可继续安全航行提供定量分析与决策支持。In this study, we focus on mechanisms to reduce cruise accidents which often lead to severe loss. We analyze accidents of cruises with a multiple set structure. We consider weather and water conditions, and formulate the problem into stochastic Petri nets. A real case of disasters on the Oriental Star cruise is studied. The simulation results indicate some critical factors, i.e. the growth rate of wind and rain, as well as hurricanes and rainstorms which have an impact on the safety of navigating a cruise. A non-linear interaction relation among these factors is reported for pre-warning disasters of cruises.

关 键 词：邮轮 预警机制 随机PETRI网 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F224.33[经济管理—国民经济]