东北三省煤炭供应形势及对策研究  

Coal supply situation and countermeasures in three provinces in Northeast China

作　　者：吴璘 李瑞峰 朱吉茂 王雷 董娟 李花 WU Lin;LI Rui-feng;ZHU Ji-mao;WANG Lei;DONG Juan;LI Hua(China Energy Technical Economy Institute,Beijing 102211,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源技术经济研究院,北京102211

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2020年第2期151-155,共5页Coal Engineering

摘　　要：近年来东北三省供暖季屡次出现煤炭供应告急情况,已成为区域重大民生问题,需要找到症结所在,从多方面加以应对。为此,对东北三省当前"域外为主、域内为辅,域外以蒙东为主力、关内和进口为重要补充"的煤炭供应格局进行了梳理,认为冬季用煤高峰期供需矛盾和运输瓶颈是供应保障的关键问题。分析了中长期东北三省煤炭供应的三大制约因素,即自身产量下降、冬季用煤高峰期运输瓶颈长期存在、蒙东产能发挥受限,进而结合煤炭消费情况,预判东北三省煤炭对外依存度还将继续提高、保供压力将持续存在,并从提升蒙东产能、提高铁路应急调运能力、建设煤炭储配基地三个方面提出应对策略。In recent years,there have been repeated emergencies of coal supply in the three provinces in the northeast of China during the heating season,which has become a major regional livelihood issue.It is necessary to find the root cause and respond in many ways.The authors sort out the current coal supply pattern in the three northeastern provinces,and argue that the contradiction between supply and demand and transportation bottleneck during the peak period of winter coal use is the key issues of supply security.The authors also analyze the three major constraints of medium and long-term coal supply,namely the decline of its own production,the long-term existence of transportation bottlenecks during the peak period of winter coal use,and the limited production capacity in eastern Inner Mongolia,and then combining with the consumption of coal,predict that the external dependence of coal in the three provinces in northeast China will continue to increase,and the pressure of supply will continue to exist.The countermeasures are proposed from three aspects:improving coal production capacity in eastern Inner Mongolia,improving railway emergency dispatch capacity,and building some coal reserve distribution bases.

关 键 词：东北煤炭供应 制约因素 季节性波动 蒙东 运输瓶颈 

分 类 号：TD-05[矿业工程] F426[经济管理—产业经济]