2005—2018年湖北省麻疹流行病学特征及发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and the incidence trend prediction of measles in Hubei Province,2005-2018

作　　者：蔡晶[1] 黄淑琼[1] 张鹏[1] 杨雯雯[1] CAI Jing;HUANG Shuqiong;ZHANG Peng;YANG Wenwen(Institute of Preventive Medicine Information,Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省疾病预防控制中心预防医学信息研究所,武汉430079

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2020年第2期42-45,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖北省卫生计生委面上项目(湖北省传染病监测系统评价WJ2017M139)。

摘　　要：目的分析麻疹的流行病学特征,预测发病趋势,为麻疹防控及消除策略的制定提供参考依据。方法采用描述性分析、季节指数法、聚类分析、ARIMA模型进行分析和预测。结果2005—2018年麻疹年均发病率为3.01/10万,2009年之后处于低发水平,2018年出现回升;3~6月季节指数>1,为高发月份;男性高于女性;以0~3岁组和10~30岁组高发;人群以散居儿童、学生、幼托儿童为主;发病率较高的地区主要为鄂西北和鄂东南;ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)为最优模型,预测显示2019年发病率为1.26/10万。结论实行强化免疫后湖北省麻疹疫情处于低发水平,但近几年波动较大,且目前呈现回升趋势;春季高发;病例呈0~4岁组和10~30岁组的“双相移位”;职业分布与年龄段高发特点吻合;卫生条件差、经济落后的山区和人口基数大、流动人口多的地区高发;ARIMA模型在麻疹发病趋势预测中具有较好的适用性,2019年麻疹会持续上升。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of measles,predict the incidence trend of the disease,and provide reference for the development of measles prevention and elimination strategies.Methods Descriptive analysis,seasonal index method,clustering analysis and ARIMA model were used for data analysis and trend prediction.Results The average annual incidence of measles in 2005-2018 was 3.01/100,000.It was at a low level after 2009,and rebounded in 2018.The seasonal index of March-June was greater than 1,which was the month of high incidence.The incidence of men was higher than that of women.The 0-3 years old and 10-30 years old groups had a high incidence,and the population was mainly scattered children,students,and nursery children.The areas with high incidence were mainly northwestern and southeastern Hubei.ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)was the optimal model.The prediction analysis showed that the incidence rate in 2019 will be 1.26/100000.Conclusion After the implementation of booster immunization,the measles epidemic in Hubei Province was at a low level,but it fluctuated greatly in recent years and is currently showing a rising trend.The incidence was high in spring.Cases were"biphasic shift"in groups 0-4 years old and 10-30 years old.Occupational distribution was consistent with the characteristics of high incidence in the age group.The mountain areas with poor sanitary conditions and economic backwardness,and regions with large population bases and high floating populations had a high incidence.The ARIMA model had good applicability in predicting the trend of measles incidence,which shows measles will continue to rise in 2019.

关 键 词：麻疹 流行特征 发病趋势 湖北省 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]