以全球视角分析新冠疫情对我国石油行业的影响  

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on China′s Oil Industry from a Global Perspective

作　　者：王越 Wang Yue(Strategic Research Center of Oil and Gas Resources,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100034)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部油气资源战略研究中心,北京100034

出　　处：《中外能源》2020年第3期1-5,共5页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：自然资源部基金项目“地质勘察及矿产资源管理”(编号:12130034)的资助。

摘　　要：新冠疫情的爆发导致我国石油消费大幅下降,引发全球石油供需体系的极大反应,各权威研究机构纷纷下调年初预期。2020年初以来,国际石油市场持续动荡,平均价格处于低位,国内爆发新冠疫情并逐渐演变成全球性公共卫生安全危机,国际原油价格持续走低。交通运输燃料占我国油品消费的55.29%,由于疫情正值春运期间,且严格的防控措施直接影响交通运输业的原油需求,直观扣减下来的需求数字对全球原油市场需求造成严重悲观情绪。但疫情向好趋势已十分明朗,国内成品油需求放缓的局面将随疫情管控的放松重回正常轨道。随着疫情呈全球蔓延趋势,全球经济悲观情绪加重,进而加重引发国际原油价格下跌。全球油气市场普遍消极看待OPEC+减产协议的油价推动作用,国际原油价格将会在短期内持续低靡。同时全球石油供应宽松的基本面没有改变,中短期内石油库存难以消解。经此一疫,有些问题值得思考。面对突如其来的社会风险造成的生产停滞,是否具备足够的应急保障能力以维持行业稳定运转,这一点我国做的可圈可点;国有大型石油企业是否预留了应对石油消费长期低靡的发展转型空间;加快深化油气体制改革已迫在眉睫;另外,石油虽然具备商品属性,但也绝不能忽视其重要的战略地位。The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic led to a sharp decline in China ′s oil consumption,triggering a strong reaction from the global oil supply and demand system,and authoritative research institutions have lowered their expectations at the start of the year.Since the beginning of 2020,the international oil market has been in turmoil,with the average price at a low level.The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in China has gradually evolved into a global public health and safety crisis,and the international crude oil price has been steadily falling.Transportation fuels account for 55.29% of China ′s oil consumption.Because the epidemic broke out during the Spring Festival and the strict prevention and control measures directly affected the crude oil demand of the transportation industry,this reduction in demand has bred serious pessimism on the global crude oil market demand.However,the epidemic is seeing a positive trend now,and the slowdown in domestic demand for refined oil products will return to the normal orbit with the relaxation of epidemic control.As the epidemic spread worldwide,pessimism on global economy has increased,which in turn aggravated the decline in international crude oil price.The global oil and gas market generally has a negative attitude towards the effect of OPEC + production reduction agreement on oil price,and the international crude oil price will continue to be low in the short term.At the same time,the fundamentals of oversupply of oil worldwide have not changed,and it is difficult to clear up the oil inventories in the short to medium term.After this epidemic,some issues are worth thinking about.In the face of production stagnation caused by sudden social risks,does the government have sufficient emergency support capabilities to maintain the stable operation of industries? China has done well in this point.Did large state-owned oil companies reserve develop-ment and transformation space to cope with the low oil consumption for a long time? Speeding up and deepening the reform of oil and

关 键 词：新冠疫情 石油消费 国际油价 交通运输燃料 石油库存 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]