粮食购销市场化改革效果季节异质性研究——以玉米临时收储制度为例  

Seasonal Heterogeneity of Effects from Marketization Reform of Grain Purchase and Sale——Empirical Evidence Based on Corn's Provisional Purchase and Storage Institution

作　　者：杨国蕾 孙天合 刘洁 李萌 YANG Guolei;SUN Tianhe;LIU Jie;LI Meng(Institute of Food Industry Technical Economics,Academy of National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration,Beijing 100037,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integrated Development,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,China)

机构地区：[1]国家粮食和物资储备局科学研究院粮食产业技术经济研究所,北京100037 [2]河北经贸大学京津冀一体化发展协同创新中心,河北石家庄050061

出　　处：《经济与管理》2020年第3期52-61,共10页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903047);中央财政科研院所专项(zx1906)。

摘　　要：利用2007年1月至2017年12月的月度时间序列数据,分析玉米收购量和收购价格的关系在收购“旺季”和“淡季”的差异,以及临时收储政策对二者关系的影响。研究表明:因收购“旺季”存在粮食行政管理部门的干预,收购价格对收购量的调节作用并不明显;在收购“淡季”,行政色彩淡化,市场机制开始发挥作用,供求双方均衡条件下的收购价格弹性为-0.58,且比未执行该政策期间的收购价格弹性提高了2%,即收购主体在收购“淡季”对价格更加敏感,侧面反映临时收储政策期间企业为了完成政策性收购任务,存在着过度收购现象。因此,粮食购销市场化改革应重视政策干预对市场机制的影响,逐步完善市场价格运行机制。Using monthly time series data from January 2007 to December 2017,we analyzed the difference between the"peak"and"low"seasons of corn purchases and the impact of temporary storage policies on the relationship between corn purchases and purchase prices.The study shows that:due to the intervention of the grain administration in the"peak season"of the purchase,the regulation of the purchase price on the purchase volume is not obvious;in the"low season"of the purchase,the administrative color is lightened and the market mechanism begins to play a role,the elasticity of the purchase price under the conditions of equilibrium between supply and demand is-0.58,and it is 2%higher than the elasticity of the purchase price during the period when the policy is not implemented,that is,the purchase subject is more sensitive to the price during the"low season"of the purchase,the side reflects that during the temporary collection and storage policy,enterprises have excessive purchase in order to complete the policy purchase task.Therefore,the reform of the marketization of food purchase and sale should pay attention to the impact of policy intervention on the market mechanism and gradually improve the market price operation mechanism.

关 键 词：粮食购销市场化 季节性波动 临时收储价格 马尔可夫区制转换动态回归模型 

分 类 号：F320.2[经济管理—产业经济]