淄博及邻区活动断裂地震危险性评估  

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Active Faults in Zibo City and Its Adjacent Area

作　　者：孙强 王涛 SUN Qiang;WANG Tao(Zibo Emergency Management Agency, Shandong Zibo 255000, China)

机构地区：[1]淄博市应急管理局,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《四川地震》2020年第1期16-23,共8页Earthquake Research in Sichuan

基　　金：山东省地震局2018年合同制项目《淄博市主要断裂地震危险性评价》(编号18Y06)。

摘　　要：淄博及邻区的主要断裂属于中国东部典型的中—弱活动断裂,虽然目前无法获得其确切的断裂活动参数,但从其构造条件及历史地震活动来看,还是具有发生中强地震的可能,因此有必要采用合适的方法手段对淄博及邻区的主要断裂的地震危险性进行评估。本文参照闻学泽等给出的华北地区at/b-Mmax经验关系的一般形式,又根据评估范围的大小及其它相关因素,对淄博及邻区的断层小区进行了重新细致的划分,运用闻学泽提出的评估思路进行断裂潜在地震最大震级的评估,又运用泊松模型和BPT模型对主要断裂的发震概率进行了估算。The main faults in Zibo and adjacent area belong to the typical medium-weak active faults in eastern China,although the precise fault activity parameters can't be obtained at present.From the perspective of its tectonic conditions and historical seismic activities,there is still the possibility of occurrence of medium-strong earthquakes.Therefore,it is necessary to adopt appropriate methods to evaluate the seismic hazard of major faults in Zibo and adjacent area.This paper refers to the general form of at/b-Mmax empirical relation in north China which was given by Wen Xueze.According to the size of assessment range and other relevant factors,the fault sub-areas in Zibo and its adjacent area were reclassified in detail,the maximum magnitude of the potential fault earthquake was evaluated by applying the above evaluation idea proposed by Wen Xueze,the Poisson model and BPT model were used to estimate the earthquake initiation probability of major faults.

关 键 词：断层小区 潜在地震最大震级 泊松模型 BPT模型 发震概率 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]