非稳态下公共养老金资产负债表的编制与精算平衡调整  

Compiling the Balance Sheet of the Public Pension in a Non-steady State and Its Adjustment

作　　者：王晓军[1,2,3] 詹家煊 Wang Xiaojun;Zhan Jiaxuan

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院 [2]中国人民大学风险管理与精算中心 [3]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第3期20-32,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国养老保障体系应对人口老龄化挑战的对策研究”(13&ZD164);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“基于大数据的精算统计模型与风险管理问题研究”(16JJD910001)。

摘　　要：公共养老金资产负债表是国家资产负债表的重要组成部分,也是政府实施养老金改革的重要依据。已有研究给出了稳态下公共养老金资产负债表的编制方法,但这些方法无法直接用于非稳态情形。当前我国面临经济、人口、制度调整等非稳态环境,因此构建适应我国实际的非稳态下的公共养老金资产负债表成为重要的研究问题。非稳态下公共养老金资产负债表编制的主要难题在于缴费资产的计算。本文在梳理公共养老金资产负债表编制原理的基础上,推导出非稳态下缴费资产的计算公式,给出我国公共养老金资产负债表的编制方法和实际应用,并进一步测算分析了降低养老金待遇指数、延迟退休、提高缴费等多项改革对公共养老金资产负债表的影响。结果显示:我国公共养老金的资产负债平衡过度依赖财政补贴,无法实现缴费资产与负债的平衡。适当调整养老金待遇指数、退休年龄、缴费水平等参数,有助于恢复资产和负债的平衡,减轻制度对财政补贴的依赖。The public pension balance sheet is an important part of the national balance sheet,and an important basis for the government to implement pension reform. Some studies have worked out how to compile the public pension balance sheet in a steady state,but these methods fail in a non-steady state. At present China is faced with the non-steady state of economy and population. Therefore,it’s valuable to study how to compile a public pension balance sheet which will adapt to China’s actual non-steady state. The main problem in compiling the public pension balance sheet in the non-steady state is the calculation of contribution assets.Based on the principles of compiling public pension balance sheet, this paper deduces the formula of contribution assets in the non-steady state,and compiles the balance sheet of China ’s public pension.Furthermore,this paper analyzes the impact of various reforms,such as lowering the pension benefit index,delaying retirement and raising contribution rate,on the public pension balance sheet. The results show that China’s public pension system relies too much on national subsidies and the assets could not meet the liabilities. The adjustment of public pension’s benefit index,retirement age,and contribution rate would help to restore the solvency of China’s public pension and reduce its dependence on national subsidies.

关 键 词：公共养老金 非稳态环境 资产负债表 缴费资产 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]