资本技能互补与技术进步的技能偏向决定  

Capital-Skill Complementarity and the Direction of Skill Bias of Technological Progress

作　　者：雷钦礼[1,2] 李粤麟 Lei Qinli;Li Yuelin

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院统计学系 [2]广东省人民政府 [3]暨南大学经济学院统计系

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第3期48-59,共12页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“技术进步偏向及其效应的统计测算与计量经济分析”(13ATJ001)。

摘　　要：本文基于三要素双层嵌套式CES生产函数和质量阶梯型技术创新模型,通过对企业行为的理论分析,揭示了决定技术进步方向的各种因素,发现技术进步的方向取决于技术进步的直接效应、资本技能互补的间接效应和劳动力市场内部的规模效应。其中,资本技能互补效应引致技术进步偏向于技能的机制有二:一是通过体现于资本的技术水平提高偏向于技能劳动,二是通过资本规模的扩大偏向于技能劳动。运用贝叶斯参数估计方法对中国1991-2016年期间技术进步技能偏向指数的实证测算结果表明,资本技能互补效应对于决定技术进步的技能偏向作用巨大,尽管在此期间直接效应偏向于非技能劳动,但是由于资本技能互补的间接效应和要素配置的规模效应偏向于技能劳动,且二者的作用强度均大于直接效应,从而使得中国的技术整体呈现出技能劳动偏向。Based on the three-element two-layer nested CES production function and quality ladder-type technological innovation model,this paper reveals various factors that determine the skill bias of technological progress through theoretical analysis of corporate behavior.It is found that the skill-biased technological progress depends on the direct effect of technological progress,the indirect effect of capital-skill complementarity,and the scale effect of labor market.Among them,the indirect effect of capital-skill complementarity leads to the skill-biased technological progress in two mechanisms.First,the technical level of capital improves the productivity of skilled labor;second,the expansion of capital scale is biased towards skilled labor.The empirical result that measures the skill bias index of technological progress of China during the period of 1991-2016 is estimated by the Bayesian parameter estimation method.It shows that the effect of complementarity plays an important role in the skill-biased decision of technological progress.During this period the direct effect is biased towards unskilled labor,but the indirect effect of capital-skill complementarity and the scale effect of factor allocation are biased towards skilled labor,and the intensity of their effects is greater than the direct effect.As a result,China’s technological progress shows an overall bias towards skilled labor.

关 键 词：资本技能互补 技术进步 技能偏向 CES生产函数 质量阶梯型技术创新 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]