金融发展、财政支出与经常项目调整——基于面板ARDL模型的研究  

Financial Development,Fiscal Expenditure and Current Account Adjustment——Research based on Panel ARDL Model

作　　者：刘方[1] 孙暖 LIU Fang;SUN Nuan(School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming,Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2020年第2期33-40,共8页Research of Finance and Education

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71163047);云南省哲学社会科学规划青年项目(QN2017011)。

摘　　要：利用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2007-2016年的面板数据,运用面板自回归分布滞后模型,探讨了金融发展、财政支出对经常项目余额的长短期影响。结果表明长期内金融发展、财政支出均显著负向、正向影响各地区经常项目余额;短期内,财政支出增加将会缩小经常项目余额,而金融发展则不具有显著作用。因此,在我国经常项目持续调整的过程中,各地区应充分利用市场化的金融手段替代行政性的财政手段,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。Using the panel data set of China's 31 provinces over the period from 2007-2016,and the panel autoregressive distributed lag model,this paper aims to examine the relationship between financial development,fiscal expenditure and current account balance in the long and short-term.The results of the regression show that financial development and fiscal expenditure has significantly negative,positive effects on the current account balance respectively in the long run;in the short term,the increase in fiscal expenditure will reduce the current account balance,while financial development will not have a significant effect.Therefore,in the process of continuous adjustment of the current account surplus in China,all regions should make full use of market-based financial means to replace the administrative financial means and ensure the balance of current account continues.

关 键 词：金融发展 财政支出 面板ARDL 截面相关性检验 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]