中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考  

The development and consideration of typhoon forecast operation of National Meteorological Center

作　　者：李泽椿 张玲 钱奇峰 麻素红 徐晶[2] 代刊 谌芸 王月冬 LI Zechun;ZHANG Ling;QIAN Qifeng;MA Suhong;XU Jing;DAI Kan;CHEN Yun;WANG Yuedong(National Meteorological Center(NMC),China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第1期10-19,共10页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(41775048);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-139)。

摘　　要：随着数值预报技术和综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,近十几年来中央气象台的台风业务预报取得了较显著的进展,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,基本达到了国际先进水平,但是在台风强度和风雨影响的预报及台风风险评估方面进展相对较慢。本文从我国台风灾害影响的严重性和中央气象台台风预报的重要性、中央气象台台风预报的发展历程、中央气象台台风预报员的作用、台风业务中重大科学问题的提出和解决途径、重大台风科研项目对中央气象台台风业务的促进和指导等几方面进行了回顾和分析,并提出了未来提高台风业务预报能力的有效途径。With the continuous progress and improvement of numerical prediction technology and comprehensive detection system,the typhoon operational prediction of the Central Meteorological Center has made remarkable progress in the past decade,especially the operational prediction level of typhoon track,which has basically reached the international advanced level,but the progress in the prediction of typhoon intensity,wind and rain impact and typhoon risk assessment is relatively slow.This paper reviews the severity of typhoon disaster in China,the importance of Typhoon Forecast in the Central Meteorological Center,the development of Typhoon Forecast of CMC,the role of typhoon forecaster in CMC,the proposal and solution of major scientific problems in typhoon operation,and the promotion and guidance of major scientific research projects for typhoon operation in CMC.Some effective ways to improve the operational typhoon forecast ability in the future are put forward.

关 键 词：台风预报业务 科研开发 集合预报 人工智能 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]