考虑风电扩建不确定性的电网规划方案概率化评价指标及方法  

Probabilistic Evaluation Indicators and Method of Grid Planning Schem Considering Uncertainty of Wind Farm Expansion

作　　者：司大军 钱迎春 李昊 鲁宗相[2] 乔颖[2] SI Dajun;QIAN Yingchun;LI Hao;LU Zongxiang;QIAO Ying(Power Grid Planning and Construction Research Center of Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650200,Yunnan Province,China;State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments(Dept.of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University),Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网有限责任公司电网规划建设研究中心,云南省昆明市650200 [2]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084

出　　处：《现代电力》2020年第2期111-116,共6页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：云南电网公司规划中心项目(YNKJXM20170122)。

摘　　要：风电项目建设地点和启动时间受自然、人为因素影响,存在较大不确定性,对电网规划产生重要影响。针对风电扩建的不确定性提出了电网规划方案概率化评价指标与方法。分析了风电扩建不确定性,然后提出电网扩建概率、电网扩建成本期望、规划方案对风电建设适应性等指标,并提出了基于电网扩展双层随机规划模型的概率化适应性评价方法。算例验证了所提指标及方法的有效性。The site and time of wind farm construction are influenced by human and natural factors,which will impact on grid planning to a great extent.In view of the uncertainty of wind farm expansion,a probabilistic evaluation method for power grid planning is proposed.Firstly,the uncertainty of wind farm expansion is analyzed.Then the grid expansion probability,grid expansion cost expectation,flexibility of planning scheme regarding wind farm expansion are proposed,and the evaluation method based on bilevel stochastic grid expansion planning model is proposed.The case study verifies the effectiveness of the proposed indicators and method.

关 键 词：风电扩建 不确定性 规划 适应性 概率化 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]