中国玉米价格分布及波动影响因素的实证  

Empirical Study on Maize Price Distribution and Its Influencing Factors in China

作　　者：郑旭芸[1] 庄丽娟[1] 邱泽慧 Zheng Xuyun;Zhuang Lijuan;Qiu Zehui(College of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第2期52-56,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503086);国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BJY129);国家现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(CARS-33-18)。

摘　　要：文章基于中国31个省份的玉米价格月度数据,运用滤波模型和空间计量模型,分析临时收储政策实施前后玉米价格空间分布与波动特征,并利用空间权重定量分析中国玉米价格波动的影响因素。研究发现,中国玉米价格空间分布与临时收储政策对玉米价格波动的影响具有显著的地区差异性。市场机制作用下中国玉米价格波动周期约为3年,临时收储政策使中国玉米价格波动幅度明显下降,不具备周期特征。市场机制作用下中国玉米价格呈现典型的空间相关性,相邻省份玉米价格显著影响目标省份玉米价格,城镇居民可支配收入、玉米生产成本、玉米受灾面积对玉米价格上涨具有显著推动作用,玉米种植面积、农村居民纯收入对玉米价格上涨具有显著抑制作用。临时收储政策实施后,空间因素和市场因素对玉米价格几乎没有影响。Based on monthly data on corn prices in 31 Chinese provinces,this paper uses filtering model and spatial measurement model to analyze the spatial distribution and fluctuation characteristics of corn prices before and after the implementation of the temporary purchase and stockpiling policy,and also employs spatial weight to make a quantitative analysis on the influencing factors of corn price fluctuation in China.The study finds that the spatial distribution of corn price and the effect of temporary purchase and stockpiling policy on corn price volatility have significant regional differences;under the action of market mechanism,the fluctuation cycle of Chinese corn price is about 3 years,and the temporary purchase and stockpiling policy has significantly reduced the fluctuation range of Chinese corn price;corn price shows typical spatial correlation in market mechanism,which means that corn price in neighboring provinces significantly affect the corn prices in target provinces,that the disposable income of urban residents,the cost of corn production and the affected area of corn have a significant driving effect on the increase of corn price,and that the planting area of corn and the net income of rural residents have a significant inhibitory effect on the increase of corn price;spatial factors and market factors have little impact on the price of corn after the implementation of the temporary stockpiling policy.

关 键 词：玉米价格 临时收储政策 空间相关性 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]