西部区域发展均衡度测算及其动态分析  

Calculation and Dynamic Analysis of Regional Development Equilibrium in Western China

作　　者：向玲凛[1] Xiang Linglin(School of Statistics,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610103,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学统计学院,成都610103

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第2期105-109,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(2014BTJ005);国家统计局统计信息技术与数据挖掘重点开放实验室开放课题(SDL201605);成都信息工程大学引进人才科研启动项目(KYTZ201506)。

摘　　要：文章基于2005-2016年西部地区、西部省域和西部市域三级空间尺度的面板数据,采用泰尔指数分解法等统计分析方法与ESDA-GIS等空间计量分析方法相结合的方式,从西部地区的协调发展均衡度、地区发展均衡度和空间发展均衡度三个维度着手,测算西部地区区域发展的均衡程度并分析其动态演化特征。结果表明:由于经济增速放缓以及公共安全指数的持续下降,西部地区的协调发展均衡度不高且呈现走低趋势;西部地区的地区发展差异显著,且省际的收入差异高于省内,农村的收入差异高于城镇;西部地区的空间发展均衡度呈现出由差异向集聚转变的趋势,但局部存在显著空间溢出效应的区域却不多,且其收入水平的空间自相关呈现出省际显著差异,市际明显集聚的特征。Based on the panel data of three-level spatial scale of the western regions,western provinces and western cities from 2005 to 2016,this paper uses methods of combining Rheil index decomposition as well other statistical methods,and ESDA-GIS as well as other spatial econometric analysis methods,and starting from such three dimensions as the balanced degree of coordinated development,of regional development and of spatial development in the western regions to calculate the equilibrium degree of the western regions’development and to analyze its dynamic evolution characteristics.The results show that due to the slowing of the economic growth rate and the continuous decline of the public security index,the coordinated development equilibrium degree of the western regions is not high,presenting a continuously downward trend;the income gap between provinces is larger than within provinces,and the income difference of the rural area is greater than that of the urban areas;the spatial development equilibrium of the western region presents a trend of transformation from difference to agglomeration,but there are not many regions with significant spatial spillover effect,and the spatial autocorrelation of their income level presents a feature of significant inter-provincial difference and obvious inter-city agglomeration.

关 键 词：均衡度测算 泰尔分解指数 ESDA-GIS 西部地区 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]