特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理及前景研判  

Trump Administration's Management on North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Prospects for Solutions

作　　者：张慧智[1] ZHANG Hui-zhi

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,长春130012

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2020年第3期30-42,127,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(19BGJ048)。

摘　　要：2017年的朝核危机实质上是特朗普政府实施边缘政策而带来的一场危机,即,通过极限施压迫使朝鲜在战争和让步之间做出选择,以推动半岛无核化进程。然而,特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理因朝鲜的外交对冲、美国国内政治因素的制约以及国际合作的缺失使双方谈判陷入僵局,美国国内甚至出现是否会默认朝鲜有核的争论。若要真正推动朝鲜半岛无核化取得实质性进展,特朗普政府的现实方案仍是设定有限目标,并由联合国安理会制定可逆条款,约束美朝不信守承诺的行为,以国际社会的担保减少美朝互信缺失带来的消极影响,加快推进半岛无核化的和平进程。The North Korean Nuclear Crisis in 2017 was essentially a brinkmanship crisis deliberately created by the Trump Administration.That is to say,the Trump Administration forces Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK)to choose between war and concession by imposing maximum pressure,so as to promote the process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.However,due to DPRK's hedging strategy,the United States(U.S.)domestic political constraints,and lack of international cooperation,the negotiation between the United States and DPRK reached a stalemate.There has even been a debate in the United States over whether or not the government will acquiesce in DPRK's nuclear weapons.If any real progress wants to be achieved,the Trump Administration must set limited goals under a practical scheme.And at the same time,the UN Security Council should formulate reversible provisions to restrain the United States and DPRK from failing to keep their promises.And reduce the negative impacts of the lack of mutual trust between the two nations with the guarantee of the international community,thereby accelerating the peace process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

关 键 词：边缘政策 朝核危机管理 国内政治 国际合作 现实选择 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]