我国农用排灌电机发展预测的等维新息模型  

AN EQUEST DIMENSION INNOVATION MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE IN CHINA

作　　者：连冬艳 郭学军 LIAN Dong-yan;GUO Xue-jun(School of mathematics and statistics,Nanyang Institute of Technology,Nanyang 473000,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳理工学院数学与统计学院,河南南阳473000

出　　处：《南阳理工学院学报》2019年第6期42-44,77,共4页Journal of Nanyang Institute of Technology

摘　　要：排灌电机是一种重要的农田水利工程基础保障设备,对节水灌溉、防洪排涝,保障农业生产和粮食安全具有重要的作用。本文运用灰色系统理论,以国家统计局公布的2011—2015农业排灌电机数据为基础,建立了我国排灌电机的GM(1,1)预测模型,并对2016的产量进行了预测,进而建立了等维信息模型,得到了2017—2020年产量的预测值,取得了良好的分析效果,可为排灌电机的生产和相关产业政策的制定提供有益的参考。The irrigation and drainage motor is an important basic protection equipment for farmland water conservancy projects,which plays a very important role in realizing high efficiency water saving irrigation,solving flood disaster,ensuring agricultural production and national food security.China’s"thirteen five"during the planning of the new construction of efficient water-saving irrigation project area of 100 million mu,regional,large-scale to promote efficient water-saving irrigation project construction.Based on the GM(1,1)model of gray system theory and the data of agricultural irrigation and transportation motor 2011~2015 published by the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper establishes the forecasting model of irrigation and drainage motor in China and forecasts the yield of 2016 The results show that the forecast of the output of the irrigation and transportation machinery and the formulation of the industrial policy have a certain reference value.

关 键 词：排灌电机 灰色系统 等维新息 预测模型 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]