内蒙古雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的熵权分析  

Characteristics of lightning casualties in Inner Mongolia and entropy weight analysis of disaster-causing factors

作　　者：刘晓东[1] 冯旭宇[2] 刘旭洋 李庆君[1] LIU Xiaodong;FENG Xuyu;LIU Xuyang;LI Qingjun(Inner Mongolia Lightning Warning & Protection Center,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center ,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区雷电预警防护中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第4期182-188,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx201906,202015)。

摘　　要：为揭示内蒙古雷电灾害分布规律和成灾原因,基于内蒙古2009—2018年雷电灾害资料和2013—2018年地闪定位系统资料,运用数理统计、熵权法分析内蒙古地区雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的影响权重。结果表明:内蒙古近10 a平均每年发生雷击伤亡事故6.20起,全区每年每百万人中约有0.36个人因雷击伤亡;乌兰察布市和锡林郭勒盟每年每百万人的雷击伤亡人数最多,呼和浩特市每1000 km2人员雷击伤亡率最高;每年雷击伤亡事故的86.58%集中在6—8月份;1 d中雷击死亡主要集中在下午13∶00—18∶00时段,占83.33%;雷击伤亡事故主要发生在农村牧区;雷击伤亡的年龄分布主要集中在40~69岁;雷击伤亡中男性所占比例高达70.73%;全区大约每7万个地闪中会有1次导致雷击伤亡事件,雷击伤亡与地闪频次在时间上有较好的相关性,雷电灾害致灾因子熵权显示高程、地闪强度较地闪密度和地形起伏度更易造成雷击人员伤亡。In order to reveal the distribution laws and disaster causes of the lightning disaster in Inner Mongolia,based on the data of lightning disaster in Inner Mongolia from 2009 to 2018 and the cloud-to-ground(CG)lighting location system from 2013 to 2018,the characteristics of lightning casualties and the influence weights of disaster-causing factors in Inner Mongolia were analyzed by using the mathematical statistics and entropy weight method.The results showed that the average annual times of lightning casualties accidents in the past 10 years in Inner Mongolia was 6.20,and about 0.36 people per million people per year were injured by the lightning.Wulanchabu City and Xilin Gol League had the highest number of lightning casualties per million people per year,and Hohhot City had the highest rate of lightning casualties per 1,000 square kilometers.86.58%of the annual lightning casualties accidents were concentrated in the range from June to August.The daily lightning deaths were mainly concentrated in the afternoon from 13∶00 to 18∶00,accounting for 83.33%.Lightning casualties mainly occurred in rural pastoral areas.The age distribution of lightning casualties was mainly concentrated in the 40~69 age group,and the proportion of males in the lightning casualties was as high as 70.73%.About one in 70,000 CG lighting in Inner Mongolia would lead to the lightning casualties event.The lightning casualties and CG lighting frequencies had a good correlation in time.The entropy weights of lightning disaster-causing factors showed that the altitude and CG lightning intensity were more likely to cause the casualties than the CG lightning density and terrain fluctuation.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 伤亡人数 致灾因子 熵权法 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]