降雨指数期权与农业天气风险防范——基于济南棉花种植的实证分析  

Rainfall Index Options and Agricultural Weather Risk Prevention:An Empirical Analysis Based on Cotton Planting in Jinan

作　　者：佟金萍 王慧 马剑锋 Tong Jinping;Wang Hui;Ma Jianfeng

机构地区：[1]常州大学商学院

出　　处：《常州大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期60-69,共10页Journal of Changzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于降雨量指数保险的农业干旱风险控制及对策研究”(15BGL128);高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养资助项目(苏教师〔2014〕23号);江苏省第五期“333工程”第三层次培养对象资助项目(苏人才办〔2016〕8号);江苏省研究生科研创新计划“基于降雨指数的天气衍生品合约设计及应用”(SJKY19_1734);国家重点研发计划项目“‘水-能源-粮食’协同安全保障关键技术”(2017YFC0404600);国家自然科学基金重点项目“变化环境下水资源冲突管理研究”(71433003)。

摘　　要：天气风险是农业生产面临的主要风险,天气衍生品作为农业天气风险管理的主要金融创新工具,能够有效防范农业天气风险。降雨指数期权将金融衍生工具应用于降雨类天气风险管理领域,对于防范农作物种植风险,提高农户收入及维护社会稳定具有重要意义。与以往利用农作物全生育期累积降雨量来设计降雨指数类天气期权的做法不同,文章着重考虑不同生育期的降雨特征对农作物生长的影响,以此作为不同生育期降雨指数期权合约的设计依据,并基于2017年济南棉花种植数据进行实证分析。研究表明:农户可以根据农作物不同生长阶段的降雨预测,灵活地选择是否购买及购买何种降雨指数期权合约,以防范降雨量过多或过少可能带来的农业天气风险,保障农户利益,为相关风险主体提供天气风险管理的多样性选择。Weather risk is the main risk faced by agricultural production.As a major financial innovation tool for agricultural weather risk management,the weather derivative can prevent agricultural weather risks effectively.Rainfall index options are to apply financial derivative tools to the field of weather risk management associated with rainfalls.It is of great significance to prevent the risks of crop planting,improve the income of farmers and maintain social stability.Different from the previous practices of using cumulative rainfalls during the whole growth period of crops to design rainfall index weather options,this paper focuses on the impacts of rainfall characteristics on crop growth during different growth periods,using which as the design basis for rainfall index option contracts during different growth periods and carries out an empirical analysis based on the cotton planting data of 2017 in Jinan.It is found that farmers can flexibly choose whether to purchase or not and which rainfall index option contract to purchase according to the rainfall forecasts of different growth periods of plants so as to prevent agricultural weather risks caused by excessive or insufficient rainfalls,guarantee the interests of farmers and provide the relevant risk subjects with a variety of choices for weather risk management.

关 键 词：天气风险 降雨指数期权 风险防范 生育期 合约设计 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]