安全焦虑、信号传递与中国对东南亚国家的战略安抚  

Security Anxiety, Signaling and China’s Strategic Reassurance to Southeast Asian Countries

作　　者：曹德军[1] CAO Dejun(School of International Relations of Peking University,Beijing,100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2020年第3期21-45,157,158,共27页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：对于崛起的中国而言,采取系统性战略安抚,树立自我克制的负责任大国形象有助于赢得周边国家信任。然而,在二十多年睦邻外交实践中,东南亚国家始终对崛起的中国的意图感到焦虑,这种担忧因地理邻近性与实力不对称而变得更加敏感。2008年以来,东南亚国家对中国"核心利益"话语、逐步增多的外交制裁以及多边倡议给予了较大关注。面对东南亚国家上升的安全忧虑,中国外交主动释放安抚信号增信释疑。与强制策略不同,安抚策略关注如何从正面激励换取他国的信任。立足于对现有文献的批判性整合,重新梳理善意信号的呈现形式(情感-物质)与成本来源(内生-外生)两大维度,可以从逻辑上生成四种睦邻安抚信号的表达路径:睦邻话语、相互依赖、无私援助与制度约束。面对中国的吸引与安抚,东南亚国家也会主动进行试探与甄别,以讨价还价、社会化、对冲试探和制度牵制四种方式,对中国释放的安抚信号进行评估。由于安抚信号的可信度评估具有主观性,东南亚国家对中国安抚信号存在不同理解,中国外交需换位思考并理解东南亚国家的试探心理。For a rising China, it is of great importance to win the trust and confidence from its neighboring countries by adopting systematic strategic reassurance and projecting an image of responsible major country with self-restraint. However, in the practice of good-neighbor diplomacy over the past two decades, Southeast Asian countries have been beset by worries and misgivings about China’s true intentions due to power asymmetry and geographical proximity. Since 2008, Southeast Asian countries have become particularly concerned about China’s "core interests" discourse, the increasing number of diplomatic sanctions and multilateral initiatives with so called "unclear intentions". Faced with the growing security concerns of Southeast Asian countries, China has taken a proactive approach to dispelling their doubts and boosting their trust levels by releasing reassuring signals to them. Contrary to the "coercive" strategy, the "reassurance" strategy underlines the importance of winning the trust and confidence of other countries via positive incentives. Based on a critical integration of the existing literature, this paper tends to discuss two important dimensions: ways of sending good will(emotion-substance) and sources of cost(endogenous-exogenous). Logically speaking, there are four paths to expressing reassuring good-neighboring signals: good neighborliness discourse, interdependence, selfless assistance and institutional restraint. Faced with China’s assurance, Southeast Asian countries will actively explore and identify their possible choices, and then examine and evaluate China’s signals from four strategic perspectives: bargaining, socialization, hedging exploration and institutional containment. Due to the problem of subjectivity in the credibility assessment of signals, Southeast Asian countries have different understandings of China’s reassurance efforts. In view of this, China’s diplomacy needs to stimulate perspective-taking and understand the exploratory attempts of these neighboring countries.

关 键 词：中国和平崛起 信号传递 意图感知 战略安抚 信任建构 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] D822.3[政治法律—政治学]