行为监管与股市发展  

Conduct Supervision and Stock Market Development

作　　者：刘晓光[1] 刘元春[2] 王健[3] 刘嘉桐 Lin Xiaoguang;Liu Yuanchun;Wang Jian;Liu Jiatong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学经济学院 [3]中国人民银行办公厅 [4]芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2020年第4期100-122,共23页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“新时代防范和化解杠杆风险研究”(19LLLJA001)的阶段性研究;北京高校“双一流”建设资金的支持。

摘　　要：近年来加强行为监管成为金融监管体制改革的重点方向,但相关经验分析严重不足。本文从促进股市发展角度,利用67个经济体2000-2012年面板数据对行为监管的影响和最优监管模式选择进行定量研究。结果发现:加强行为监管对股市发展有显著正向影响,可提高经济体股市市值占GDP比重9.7个百分点,贡献率达16.1%,特别是对发展中经济体,可促进该比重提高10.1个百分点,贡献率达25.8%;不同行为监管模式存在不同影响,相比混业行为监管,分业行为监管对股市发展促进作用更显著;行为监管与审慎监管模式存在交互效应,相比混业审慎监管,在分业审慎监管模式下引入行为监管,对股市发展促进作用更大,因此金融监管体制改革需要系统性方案。In recent years,strengthening conduct supervision has become the focus of reforming the financial supervision system.However,existing research has mainly focused on the qualitative debate and the relevant empirical analyses are clearly insufficient.From the perspective of promoting stock market development,this paper carries out,for the first time,a quantitative study on the effects of conduct supervision and the selection of the optimal supervision mode,using panel data of 67 economies between 2000 and 2012.The main findings are as follows:first,conduct supervision has a significant positive impact on promoting stock market development.Strengthening conduct supervision can significantly increase the market value of a country's stock market by 9.7%of its GDP,with a contribution rate of 16.1%.In developing economies,this proportion can increase by 10.1%,with a contribution rate of 25.8%.Second,compared to mixed conduct supervision,separate conduct supervision plays a more significant role in promoting stock market development.Third,there is an interaction effect between conduct supervision and the prudential supervision mode.Compared to mixed prudential supervision,the introduction of conduct supervision under the separate prudential supervision mode plays a more significant role in promoting stock market development.Therefore,the financial supervision system reform cannot separate prudential supervision from that of conduct,so this requires a systematic approach.

关 键 词：行为监管 股票市场 审慎监管 最优监管模式 金融体制改革 

分 类 号：F831.51[经济管理—金融学]