竞争性需求、信贷约束与宏观经济波动  

Competitive Demand,Credit Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

作　　者：翟乃森 Zhai Naisen

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第4期45-53,共9页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

摘　　要：本文通过构建包含房地产资产、信贷约束、名义粘性的动态随机一般均衡模型研究中国房地产市场波动根源以及房地产市场与宏观经济波动之间的传导机制。模型估计结果显示,房地产需求冲击是房价上涨的主要驱动力。数值模拟发现,竞争性需求与内生信贷约束机制支撑房价不断上涨,并且放大了房地产市场波动对于宏观经济的影响。在此基础上的政策分析表明,从宏观审慎的角度来看,盯住房价的贷款价值比规则能够有效的缓解房地产市场波动带来的系统性金融风险。The dissertation develops a New-Keynesian DSGE model with house asset,credit constraints,nominal stickiness to study China’s housing market fluctuation and the transmission mechanism between housing market and macro-economy.The model estimation results show that housing demand shocks is the main driving force of housing price rise.The numerical simulation shows that the competitive demand and endogenous credit constraint mechanism support the rising of house prices,and amplify the impact of housing market fluctuations on the macro-economy.On this basis,the policy analysis shows that,from the perspective of macro prudential,the loan to value ratio targeting housing price can effectively alleviate the systemic financial risk brought by the fluctuation of housing market.

关 键 词：房地产价格 竞争性需求 内生信贷约束 宏观经济波动 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]