自贸试验区促进了地区经济的平稳增长吗?——基于数据包络分析和双重差分法的验证  

Has the Pilot Free Trade Zone Contributed to Steady Economic Growth in the Region?——Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and Difference in Difference Method Verification

作　　者：郎丽华[1] 冯雪 Lang Lihua;Feng Xue

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第4期131-141,共11页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“正确处理经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系研究”(12&ZD038),项目负责人:张连城;首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新学术型项目“全球价值链视角下中国高技术制造业的地位及竞争力研究——基于中美日德的比较”。

摘　　要：自贸试验区作为国家新一轮改革开放的"前沿阵地",自设立之初便备受关注,但关于自贸试验区对经济平稳增长的影响尚缺考证。基于此,本文采用2010--2017年间中国31个省份的面板数据,首先通过数据包络分析法测算出各地区的全要素生产率波动率,再利用双重差分法衡量自贸试验区对经济平稳增长的作用。研究结果表明:第一,设立自贸试验区能够减小全要素生产率波动率,从而抑制经济的下滑态势,促进经济的平稳增长,且这一结论具有较高的稳健性;第二,自贸试验区的政策效应显现需要一定的时间;第三,沿海自贸试验区与内陆自贸试验区相比,对地区经济平稳增长的贡献度更高,自贸试验区的制度红利释放存在空间差异性。此项研究正面验证了国家设立自贸试验区的经济意义与政策意义。As the"frontier"of the new round of reform and opening up,the Pilot Free Trade Zone has attracted much attention since its establishment.However,there is still a lack of research on the impact of Pilot Free Trade Zones with steady economic growth.Based on this,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2017.Firstly,it calculates the total factor productivity volatility of each region through Data Envelopment Analysis,and then measures the effect of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on the steady economic growth by using the Difference in Difference method.The results show that:First,the establishment of the Pilot Free Trade Zone can reduce the volatility of total factor productivity,so as to restrain the economic decline and promote the steady growth of the economy.Second,it will take a certain period of time for the policy effects of the Pilot Free Trade Zones to emerge.Third,compared with inland Pilot Free Trade Zones,the coastal Pilot Free Trade Zones have a higher contribution to the steady growth of regional economy,and there are spatial differences in the release of institutional dividends in the Pilot Free Trade Zones.This paper positively verifies the economic and policy significance of the establishment of the Pilot Free Trade Zone.

关 键 词：自贸试验区 地区经济平稳增长 数据包络分析 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]