资本账户开放的间接作用与门槛效应  

Indirect Effect and Threshold Effect of Capital Account Openness

作　　者：李俊江[1] 徐征 LI Jun-jiang;XU Zheng(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《东北师大学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第3期64-72,共9页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(13BJL042)。

摘　　要：在分析资本账户开放的作用机制和思考亚太金融危机的国际经验基础上,通过利用静态面板模型和面板门限模型对75个国家的面板数据做实证分析得出资本账户开放不仅能直接影响一国经济增长,而且通过影响一国金融部门的发展间接作用经济增长,已经实现的汇率制度也会制约资本账户开放对经济增长的影响,资本账户开放效果和汇率制度的约束效果都存在门槛效应。因此认为中国未来继续进行资本账户开放的前提是保证培育出金融部门的比较优势,同时继续推进汇率改革,而不是用折衷的态度对抗"三元悖论",才能确保中国未来的资本账户开放实现收益大于成本。Based on the analysis of the mechanism of capital account openness and the international experience from Asia Pacific financial crisis,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the panel data of 75 countries by using the static panel model and panel threshold model.Capital account openness can not only directly affect a country’s economic growth,but also indirectly affect economic growth by influencing the development of a country’s financial sector.The exchange rate system will also restrict the impact of capital account openness on economic growth.There are threshold effects in both the effect of capital account openness and the effect of exchange rate system.Therefore,it is concluded that the premise for Chinese capital account openness in the future is to ensure that the comparative advantages of the financial sector and at the same time to continue promote the exchange rate reform,rather than to use eclectic attitude to "triple paradox",in order to ensure that Chinese future capital account openness will achieve more benefits than costs.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 汇率制度 金融部门 门限回归 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]