长输油气管道河沟段水毁灾害气象风险评价研究  

Meteorological Risk Assessment of River Channel Washout Disaster of Long-distance Oil and Gas Pipelines

作　　者：薛俊卓 詹辉 张国良 何开 邓清禄[1] XUE Junzhuo;ZHAN Hui;ZHANG Guoliang;HE Kai;DENG Qinglu(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan))Wuhan 430074,Cina;Jiangxi Province Natural Gas Pipeline Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330096,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]江西省天然气管道有限公司,江西南昌330096

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2020年第2期168-174,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：江西省天然气管道有限公司项目(2018056286)。

摘　　要：地质灾害是威胁长输油气管道安全的主要风险源之一,其中穿越河道或冲沟(统称河沟)段的长输油气管道易受暴雨洪水冲刷的危害,动态评价河沟段水毁灾害气象风险对长输油气管道安全管理具有重要意义。探讨了适合长输油气管道河沟段暴雨洪水和冲刷深度的计算方法,在此基础上设计了半定量评价指标体系,以综合评判河沟道段长输油气管道水毁灾害的风险等级;应用此方法对江西省某天然气管网一期工程19处评价点水毁灾害进行了气象风险评价。结果表明:与50年一遇暴雨状况相比,100年一遇暴雨状况下该河沟段管道水毁灾害风险概率较前者有升高的趋势,其中有2处评价点的风险概率明显升高,该评价结果与实际条件较为符合。该研究可为长输管道等开展相关安全评价提供参考。Geological disaster is one of the main risk sources that threatens the safety of long-distance oil and gas pipelines.Along the long-distance pipelines,the part crossing the river channels(including river courses and gullies)is vulnerable to storm flooding and damage.It is important for long-distance oil and gas pipeline safety management to have a dynamic assessment of the meteorological risk of river channel washout disaster.This paper discusses the methods of calculating river channel flood flow under rainstorm condition and its scour depth.On this basis,the paper also designs a semi-quantitative assessment indicator system to comprehensively judge the risk levels of the river channel washout disaster.With this method,the paper assesses 19 evaluation points of the first phase project of the natural gas pipeline network in Jiangxi Province.The results show that the risk probability of the river channel washout disaster under one in 100-year torrential rain condition is higher than that under one in 50-year torrential rain condition,where the risk probability at two evaluation points are significantly higher.The assessment results are in line with the actual conditions.The paper may provide reference for long-distance pipelines and other related safety evaluations.

关 键 词：长输油气管道 河沟段 水毁灾害 气象风险评价 暴雨 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]