基于系统动力学的武汉市生态安全预警仿真研究  

Early Warning Simulation of Urban Ecological Security Based on System Dynamics in Wuhan City

作　　者：柯小玲[1,2] 郭海湘[1] 龚晓光[3] 刘晓[1] Ke Xiaoling;Guo Haixiang;Gong Xiaoguang;Liu Xiao(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074;Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics,China University of Geosciences,W uhan 430074;School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉430074 [3]华中科技大学管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第4期262-273,共12页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC630065);国家自然科学基金项目(71573237)。

摘　　要：城市生态系统是一个人口高度集中的复合生态系统,它的生态安全性更加脆弱。本文采用系统动力学理论与方法进行城市生态安全预警研究,首先采用PSR概念模型建立城市生态安全预警指标体系,然后基于系统动力学构建城市生态系统安全仿真模型,并以武汉市为样本,通过系统流图、方程及其仿真揭示该市2004-2020年的生态安全演化趋势,并进行预警分析。结果表明:2004-2020年武汉市生态系统呈现逐年好转的趋势,大致经历了先下降再波动回升最后稳步提升三个发展阶段,这是生态安全压力、生态安全状态和生态安全响应三个层面不同要素共同作用的结果。Urban ecosystem is a densely populated compound ecosystem and its ecological security is quite vulnerable. This paper uses system dynamics theory and method to study the early warnings of urban ecological security. Firstly,the urban ecological security early warning index system is constructed by PSR model,then the simulation model of urban ecological system is constructed based on system dynamics. Taking Wuhan as a sample and using the system flow diagram,the equation and its simulation,we reveal the ecological security evolution trend of the city from 2004 to 2020,and analyze the early warnings. The results show that the ecological system of Wuhan improves year by year from 2004 to 2020 through three stages from declining,to bouncing back to steadily improving. This is the result of the interaction among different elements at such three levels as ecological safety pressure,ecological security state and ecological security response.

关 键 词：城市生态安全 系统动力学 仿真 预警 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]