销售与管理费用率变动和未来盈余增长——基于费用粘性和内部要素变动的分析  

Changes in Sales,Overhead Rates and Future Earnings Growth:An Analysis Based on Cost Stickiness and Internal Factor Variation

作　　者：侯晓红[1] 袁铭 HOU Xiaohong;Yuan Ming

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期117-132,共16页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“空间距离、同业模仿与环境信息披露机会主义行为:动因、实现路径与经济后果”(项目编号:71572189)。

摘　　要：销售与管理费用率是预测企业未来盈余的重要指标。采用2005-2017年A股上市公司数据,应用费用粘性理论,从销售与管理费用率内部要素变动视角,研究了销售与管理费用率变动和未来盈余增长的关系。研究发现,销售收入上升时,销售与管理费用率下降与未来盈余增长负相关;销售收入下降时,销售与管理费用率上升和未来盈余增长正相关。进一步研究表明,上述关系受产权性质和市场化进程影响。这一研究结论拓宽了销售与管理费用率变动对企业未来盈余增长影响的研究视野,对投资者更好地依据成本信息进行决策提供了理论基础和经验证据。The sales and overhead rates are important indexes to predict the future earnings of an enterprise.Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2017,this paper applies the cost stickiness theory to the study of the relationship between the changes of sales and overhead rates and future earnings growth from the perspective of internal factor variation.The results show that when sales revenue increases,the decline of sales and overhead rates is negatively related to future earnings growth;and when sales revenue declines,the increase of sales and overhead rates is positively related to future earnings growth.Further study shows that the above relationship is affected by the nature of property rights and the process of marketization.This paper broadens the research field of the influence of the change of sales and overhead rates on the future earnings growth of enterprises,and provides theoretical basis and empirical evidence for investors to make better decisions based on cost information.

关 键 词：销售与管理费用率变动 未来盈余增长 费用粘性 内部要素变动 

分 类 号：F257[经济管理—国民经济] F832.51