突发疫情的经济影响与财政干预政策评估  

Economic Effect and Fiscal Policy Assessment of COVID-19 Outbreak

作　　者：朱军[1] 张淑翠[2] 李建强[3] ZHU Jun;ZHANG Shucui;LI Jianqiang(School of Public Finance and Taxation, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Electronic Information Industry Development,Beijing 100846,China;Institute of Finance, People's Bank of China,Beijing 100800,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学财政与税务学院,江苏南京210023 [2]中国电子信息产业发展研究院工业经济研究所,北京100846 [3]中国人民银行金融研究所,北京100800

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2020年第3期21-32,共12页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“双支柱调控框架下货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调机制研究”(18BJY237)。

摘　　要：2020年初暴发的“新冠肺炎”疫情,严重威胁人民群众的生命安全和身体健康。为便于科学决策,构建动态随机一般均衡模型研究疫情影响社会经济的机制路径、影响程度,并量化评估财政政策干预的效果。研究发现:(1)突发疫情冲击不会对基础设施和实物资本造成实质性的损害和破坏,更多是通过减少有效劳动力规模,间接破坏市场的正常交易机制;数量影响上,疫情造成30期内中国经济增长速度下降10%。(2)有效的疫情控制必须要重视公众信心的恢复,重视正确、及时的信息提供。(3)疫情发生后,政府干预力度和“响应时滞”决定着疫情对经济的影响程度。观察期内,政府财政干预能有效减缓中国经济下行压力,将使增速下降10%降至下降5%左右。要优化完善应急响应机制,将短期抗击疫情工作与长期的国家治理体制、机制相结合。The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 has seriously threatened people's lives and health.In order to facilitate scientific decision-making,this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the mechanism path and degree of epidemic affecting social economy,and to evaluate the effect of fiscal policy intervention quantitatively.The results show:(1)The impact of the outbreak will not cause substantial damage to infrastructure and physical capital,but more indirectly destroy the normal trading mechanism of the market by reducing the effective labor scale.In terms of quantity,the epidemic caused a 10%drop in China's economic growth rate in 30 periods.(2)Effective epidemic control must pay attention to restoration of public confidence and provision of correct and timely information.(3)After the outbreak,government intervention and"response delay"will determine the impact of the epidemic on the economy.During the observation period,the government's fiscal intervention can effectively slow down the downward pressure on China's economy,which will reduce the downward rate from 10%to about 5%.To optimize and improve the emergency response mechanism,we should combine the short-term anti-epidemic work with the long-term national governance system and mechanism.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 结构模型 经济影响 政策干预 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学]