限制二手车牌市场的政策效果——基于上海车牌拍卖市场的理论分析和实证检验  

The Policy Effect of Restricting the Secondary Market:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test Based on Shanghai Vehicle License Auction Market

作　　者：郝亮[1] 巫景飞[2] 白小煌 HAO Liang;WU Jing-fei;BAI Xiao-huang

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院 [2]上海大学产业经济研究中心 [3]上海大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2020年第5期80-94,共15页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：本文以上海市车牌市场为例,考察二手车牌市场限制政策的效果。通过构建理论模型,分析限制车牌二手市场对拍卖市场的影响;继而结合上海市车牌市场价格、投标人数、中标率等数据,验证理论分析的结论。研究表明:理论逻辑上,限制政策很难起到预期效果;实践效果上,“警示价”前的限制政策无法缓解价格上涨的趋势,“警示价”后的限制政策难以缓解投标人数激增和中标率下降的趋势;总体而言,限制政策并不能达到预期的效果。结合上述研究结论,本文分别从短期、中期、长期三个方面对车牌市场的管理提供了相应的政策建议。Taking the vehicle license market of Shanghai as an example,this paper aims to study the effect of the policy which imposes restrictions on the secondary market.This paper developed a theoretical model and proved its conclusion of the theoretical analysis by dissecting the restrictive secondary market policy's impact on auction market as well as studying the data including the price of vehicle license in Shanghai,the number of bidders,the bid-winning ratio,etc.The research shows that theoretically the restrictive policy barely achieved its expected effect.Practically speaking,the restrictive policy before the warning price can hardly prevent the price from increasing,the one after the warning price can neither restrain the number of bidders from growing nor stop the bid-winning ratio from dropping.Therefore,the restrictive policy can't reach its expectation in general.Based on this conclusion,the paper finally puts forward some proposals to manage the license plate market from a short-term,mid-term and long-term point of view respectively.

关 键 词：车牌拍卖 二手市场 中标价格 中标率 上海车牌 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]