绿色低碳新兴产业成熟度评价方法研究  

Evaluation Method for the Maturity Levels of Green and Low-Carbon Emerging Industries

作　　者：孙旭东[1,2] 李雪松 张博 彭苏萍[2] Sun Xudong;Li Xuesong;Zhang Bo;Peng Suping(School of Management,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2020年第2期98-107,共10页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“新兴产业发展战略研究(2035)”(2018-ZD-12);中国工程院咨询项目“中国氢能源与燃料电池发展战略研究”(2019-ZD-3);国家重点研发计划项目“CO2近零排放的煤气化发电技术”(2017YFB0601900)。

摘　　要：今后10~15年是我国加快培育和发展新兴产业的关键时期,作为我国生态文明建设重要任务的绿色低碳产业发展也将面临重要机遇期。绿色低碳新兴产业以能源新技术、节能环保和新能源汽车为代表,其细分产业的技术特征、规模和发展程度存在明显的差异性,亟待开展与之对应的成熟度评价方法研究。本文在归纳产业成熟度评价的基本理论与通用方法的基础上,明确绿色低碳产业的范畴与定义,辨识相关产业的高质量发展特征;提出了绿色低碳产业成熟度评价模型与指标体系,具体阐述产业成熟度等级合成方法。以生物质热电联产产业为例完成了绿色低碳产业成熟度评价应用研究,分析认为案例产业发展整体达到了较成熟等级,但市场成熟度的进展滞后于工程科技进步。研究建议:建立绿色低碳产业成熟度年度评价机制,组建绿色低碳产业发展信息的权威发布机构,加强我国新兴产业数据库建设及客观评价。The next 10 to15 years will be a key period for China to accelerate the cultivation and development of emerging industries. The development of green and low-carbon industries, an important task of China’s ecological civilization construction, will face an important period of opportunity. The green and low-carbon emerging industry is represented by emerging energy technologies, energy conservation and environment protection, and new energy vehicles;and there are significate differences in the technical characteristics, scale, and development degree of each subsector. Therefore, research on the corresponding maturity evaluation method is urgently needed. This study first summarizes the basic theory and general method for industry maturity evaluation, then defines the category and definition of green and low-carbon industries, and identifies the characteristics of high-quality development of related industries. Meanwhile, the maturity evaluation model and index system of the green and low-carbon industries are proposed and the calculation method of the industry maturity levels is presented. Moreover, application of the maturity evaluation method of the green and lowcarbon industries is studied, using the biomass cogeneration industry as an example. The analysis shows that this industry is relatively mature, but the development of market maturity level is slower than the progress of engineering science and technology. Furthermore, we suggest that an annual evaluation mechanism for the maturity level of the green and low-carbon industries should be formed, an authoritative institution for publishing the development information of these industries should be established, and the database construction and objective evaluation of China’s emerging industries should be strengthened.

关 键 词：绿色低碳 新兴产业 产业成熟度 能源新技术 节能环保 新能源汽车 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]