贸易政策调整对水资源环境影响的多区域CGE模拟研究  

Multi-regional CGE Simulation Study of Impact of Trade Policy Adjustment on Water Resources

作　　者：邓光耀 DENG Guang-yao(Center for Quantitative Analysis of Gansu Economic Development,School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心,兰州财经大学统计学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2020年第3期14-24,共11页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“水足迹视角下中国各省水资源利用效率研究”(项目编号:71704070);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金西部和边疆地区项目“虚拟水视角下中国各省水资源政策的多区域CGE模拟研究”(项目编号:17XJC790002);全国统计科学重点研究项目“中国‘新经济’统计测度体系”(项目编号:2016LZ03);甘肃省高等学校科研项目“循环经济视角下甘肃省水资源利用效率研究”(项目编号:2017B-41);兰州财经大学科研项目“中国水资源社会核算矩阵的编制和应用研究”(项目编号:Lzufe2018B-06)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于中国2012年投入产出表相关数据,构建进出口贸易政策调整对水资源环境影响的多区域CGE模型,从八大区域层面研究了中国进出口贸易政策调整对水资源环境以及经济系统的影响。模拟研究发现:(1)虽然进口税率降低1%的政策会使得各区域真实GDP增加,但并不利于节约水资源,且加剧了水资源污染;而出口退税税率降低1%的政策对大多数区域来说,虽然能节约水资源,降低污水排放,但是不利于经济增长。(2)进出口贸易政策对各区域水资源环境和主要经济变量的影响大小存在差异。总体来说,对华南区域影响较大,对西南区域影响较小。因此,在政策实施过程中,中央政府需要同步调节进出口贸易政策,各区域也应当根据自身的实际情况对政策调整做出相应的应对措施,才能在保持经济增长的同时不损害水资源环境。Based on the data of China’s 2012 input-output table, this paper constructs a multi-regional CGE model for the impact of import and export trade policy adjustment on water resources environment. From eight regional perspectives, the impact of China’s import and export trade policy adjustments for water resources environment and economy system are studied. The simulation study found that:(1) Although the policy of reducing the import tax rate by 1% will increase the real GDP of each region, it is not conducive to saving water resources and exacerbating water pollution. When the policy of reducing export tax rebate rate by 1% for most regions, although it can save water resources and reduce sewage discharge, it is not conducive to economic growth.(2) There are also differences in the impact of import and export trade policies on water resources environment and major economic variables in various regions. Generally speaking, it has a greater impact on the South China region and less on the Southwest region. Therefore, in the process of policy implementation, the central government needs to adjust the import and export trade policy simultaneously. Each region should also make corresponding measures to adjust the policy according to its actual situation, in order to maintain economic growth without damaging the water resources environment.

关 键 词：贸易政策 水资源环境 可计算一般均衡 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]