Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development:Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2019-2020)  

作　　者：Kevin X.D.Huang Zixi Liu Guoqiang Tian 

机构地区：[1]Department of Economics,Vanderbilt University,Nashville,TN 37235,USA [2]Institute for Advanced Research,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China [3]Department of Economics,Texas A&M University,College Station,TX 77843,USA

出　　处：《Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities》2020年第1期1-24,共24页中国高等学校学术文摘·经济学（英文版）

摘　　要：Twenty nineteen(2019)marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities.Internally,the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth,plunged growth in manufacturing investment,rapid accumulation of household debt,risen income inequality,and the overhang of local government debt.The nation's external conditions did not fare any better,with drastically declined growth in imports and exports,continued trade tensions with the US,and weakened external demand.Based on the IAR-CMM model,which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors,the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0%in 2020(5.9%using more reliable rather than the official data),with a downside risk.Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted,in addition to the benchmark forecast,to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties.The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.

关 键 词：MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK alternative scenario policy simulation COMPETITIVE NEUTRALITY REFORM systemic risk resource misallocation 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]