基于Kriging-子模型法的混凝土大坝廊道安全分析  

Safety Analysis of Concrete Dam Gallery Based on Kriging Sub-model Method

作　　者：戚蓝[1] 张哲铭 QI Lan;ZHANG Zheming(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《水力发电》2020年第5期67-70,104,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51609214)。

摘　　要：为满足水利工程中廊道安全计算的要求,针对现有廊道安全性能分析研究无法直观反应廊道安全程度的问题,构建了一种结合Kriging-子模型法的廊道可靠度计算模型,该模型可以有效地反映出廊道在温度、材料强度等不确定界限影响因素下的可靠程度。研究结果表明:该可靠度计算模型能够有效地拟合原始数据中的无关离散点,对廊道整体强度可靠度分析做出较好的预测,为进一步分析廊道安全性能提供了基础。In order to meet the requirements on the safety calculation of concrete dam gallery in water conservancy projects and solve the problem that the existing gallery safety performance analysis and research cannot directly reflect gallery safety degree,a gallery reliability calculation model combined with Kriging sub-model method is constructed, which can effectively reflect the reliability degree of gallery under the actions of different influence factors such as temperature, material strength and other uncertain boundaries. The research results show that the proposed reliability analysis method can effectively fit the independent discrete points in original data, and make a better prediction for the reliability analysis of the overall strength of gallery, which provides a good basis for the further analysis of gallery safety performance.

关 键 词：KRIGING模型 子模型 可靠度 安全分析 混凝土坝 廊道 

分 类 号：TV640.35[水利工程—水利水电工程]