美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策及面临的挑战  

The U.S.“New Monroe Doctrine”Policy Towards Latin America and its Challenges

作　　者：李庆四[1] 邱龙宇 Li Qingsi;Qiu Longyu

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2020年第2期40-59,155,共21页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美政策奉行“新门罗主义”,加大了对拉美国家的干预,反映在经济、政治和安全等领域,如鼓噪“美国优先”,大打“贸易牌”“移民牌”,使前任奥巴马政府与古巴关系正常化的努力出现全面倒退,甚至拒绝承认委内瑞拉民选总统马杜罗而另行“任命”一个代理总统瓜伊多等。当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,拉美政治、经济格局也经历着深刻变化。中国、俄罗斯等在拉美的影响力不断增强。“一带一路”倡议在拉美落地生根,深化了中拉政治、经济互信;俄罗斯强硬支持委内瑞拉加剧了美俄博弈,导致美国“后院失火”的可能性增大,迫使特朗普深度调整美国对拉美政策。这一政策调整对美国究竟意味着全球战略扩张还是战略收缩,值得探讨。特朗普的拉美政策不仅会影响美拉关系及美拉双方的发展,也将影响中拉关系的发展。本文尝试对美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策的现状、原因和影响进行分析,并考察其面临的挑战。The U.S.foreign policy towards Latin America under the Trump administration has changed significantly,which can be referred to as the“New Monroe Doctrine”.Under this policy,the U.S.has stepped up its diplomatic offensiveness in the economic,political and security areas in Latin AmericaAdvocating“America first”,Trump administration played“trade card”“immigration card”,flatly overturned US-Cuba agreement signed by predecessor Obama administration on establishing diplomatic relationsIt even refused to recognize Venezuela’s elected President Maduro and“appointed”another agent GuaidóThe world is currently witnessing great transformationThe political and economic pattern of Latin America is undergoing profound changes,and the influence of China and Russia in this region has continued to increaseThe Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)is taking root in this region,which deepens mutual trust between China and Latin AmericaRussia’s strong support for Venezuela has intensified the U.S.-Russia game in Latin America,leading to an increased possibility of“backyard fire”.All these factors combined together drove Trump administration to adjust its policies toward Latin AmericaWhether this policy adjustment means strategic expansion or contraction for the U.S.foreign policy towards Latin America will not only have direct impact on both sides,but also affect China’s presence in this regionBy analyzing the causes and effects of the“New Monroe Doctrine”policy,the author argues that the prospect of this policy faces major challenges.

关 键 词：特朗普政府 新门罗主义 美国优先 美拉关系 美俄博弈 中拉关系 

分 类 号：D873[政治法律—政治学]