马克里经济政策的回顾与评述  

Review and Comments on Macri’s Economic Policy

作　　者：李仁方[1] Li Renfang

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2020年第2期131-153,158,共24页Journal of Latin American Studies

基　　金：教育部国别与区域研究课题“挣扎中的阿根廷经济及其出路”(编号:19sxb028)的阶段性成果;获得西南科技大学龙山学术人才科研支持计划(编号:17LSX507)资助。

摘　　要：在马克里总统执政期间,阿根廷经济增长乏力,通货膨胀居高不下,比索大幅度贬值。尽管马克里政府采取了一系列振兴经济的政策措施,但效果并不如意。在民粹主义盛行的阿根廷,新自由主义经济政策缺乏良好的社会政治基础,许多看似美好的政策实施起来阻力重重。贸易自由化没有显著提高阿根廷出口额,金融自由化也无助于吸引更多外国直接投资进入阿根廷,却给短期投机资本进入和逃离阿根廷创造了便利条件。货币政策不能有效扼制通货膨胀,外汇及资本管理政策未能有效阻止国际储备流失,也未能控制本币持续贬值。日趋紧缩的财政收入政策抑制了企业的生产性投资意愿,也降低了对外资的吸引力;过多的社会福利支出削弱了政府对基础设施等公共产品的供给能力,债务增长显著提升了债务违约和本币进一步贬值的风险,短期内阿根廷经济实现复苏的难度较大。持续的经济衰退不仅导致前总统马克里未能实现连任,也给新当选的费尔南德斯政府留下了诸多难题。不断增加的贫困人口和民粹主义的再次兴起,将给未来阿根廷的经济改革和政策调整带来重重阻力,并可能对阿根廷长期经济发展带来深远影响。During President Macri’s administration,Argentina’s economic growth was sluggish,inflation remained high,and the peso depreciated significantlyAlthough the Macri government has adopted a series of policy measures to revitalize the economy,the effects have not been satisfactoryIn Argentina,where populism prevails,neo-liberal economic policies lack good socio-political basis,and many seemingly reasonable policies are confronted with a lot of obstaclesTrade liberalization did not significantly increase Argentina’s exportsFinancial liberalization did not help attract more FDI into Argentina,rather,it created convenient conditions for short-term speculative capital to entre and escape freelyMonetary policy could not effectively curb inflation,meanwhile,foreign exchange and capital management policies failed to prevent the loss of reserves,nor did they succeed in preventing the uncontrolled devaluation of the domestic currencyThe increasingly tightened financial policies have restrained domestic companies’willingness of productive investment and reduced attractiveness to foreign investmentExcessive social welfare expenditures have weakened government’s ability to supply infrastructure and other public goods,while debt growth significantly increased the risk of debt defaults and further depreciation of its currencyIt is very difficult for the Argentina’s economy to recover in the short termThe ongoing economic recession not only prevented Macri from achieving re-election,but also left many problems for the successive Fernandez governmentThe increasing poverty and the rise of populism bring many obstacles for future economic reform and policy adjustment,which may have profound impact on Argentina’s long-term economic development.

关 键 词：阿根廷 马克里 新自由主义 民粹主义 经济衰退 

分 类 号：F178.3[经济管理—世界经济]